While most registered voters across the country expect to cast their ballots in person this year, a quarter expect to vote by mail or absentee ballot (or have already done so). As in past election years, most of those who cast their ballots by mail or vote absentee express confidence in how mail and absentee balloting works. These voters are substantially more confident about this than voters who cast their ballots in person – a pattern that holds among voters who support both Republican and Democratic congressional candidates for the House of Representatives.
- 67% of voters who support the Republican House candidate in their district and plan to vote by mail, or already have, say they are confident that mail votes will be counted as intended.
- About half as many Republican candidate supporters who plan to vote in person (36%) say they are confident that mail ballots will be counted accurately.
- 78% of people who support their Democratic House candidate and have already voted by mail, or plan to, say they are confident that mail in votes will be counted as voters intend.
- A smaller majority (58%) of in-person Democratic voters say the same thing.
| Group | Voting type | Total | Rep candidate supporters | Dem candidate supporters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All voters | In person | 79 | 84 | 81 |
| In person | In person | 80 | 83 | 80 |
| By absentee | In person | 88 | 93 | 86 |
| All voters | Absentee | 53 | 42 | 64 |
| In person | Absentee | 47 | 36 | 58 |
| By absentee | Absentee | 76 | 67 | 78 |
This is part of a larger Pew Research Center report on Americans views of election processes heading into the 2026 midterms, based on a survey of 5,062 adults, including 3,917 registered voters, conducted Sept. 28–Oct. 4, 2026. The survey was conducted prior to the Justice Department suing California on Oct. 15 to stop the state from counting the mail ballots of individuals who the Trump administration alleges are noncitizens.
Majorities are confident that mail ballots will arrive, and be returned, in time to be counted
An overwhelming majority of voters say that it is important that mail ballots be delivered with enough time to return them, and that it is important that the U.S. Postal Service return those ballots to election offices in time to be counted.
| Topic | Response | Group | Very | Somewhat | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | It is __ important | All RVs | 80 | 13 | 93 |
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | It is __ important | Republican candidate supporters | 73 | 16 | 89 |
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | It is __ important | Democratic candidate supporters | 92 | 7 | 99 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | It is __ important | All RVs | 87 | 8 | 96 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | It is __ important | Republican candidate supporters | 88 | 9 | 96 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | It is __ important | Democratic candidate supporters | 91 | 6 | 97 |
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | They are __ confident this will happen | All RVs | 28 | 47 | 75 |
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | They are __ confident this will happen | Republican candidate supporters | 29 | 49 | 79 |
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | They are __ confident this will happen | Democratic candidate supporters | 27 | 46 | 73 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | They are __ confident this will happen | All RVs | 25 | 44 | 69 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | They are __ confident this will happen | Republican candidate supporters | 22 | 43 | 65 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | They are __ confident this will happen | Democratic candidate supporters | 26 | 46 | 72 |
And most voters also express confidence that both of these things will happen.
Three-quarters of voters say they are very (28%) or somewhat (47%) confident that mail ballots will be delivered with enough time to return them.
Republican candidate supporters are somewhat more likely than Democratic candidate supporters to say this (79% vs. 73%).
About seven-in-ten voters (69%) say they are confident that the Postal Service will return ballots in time to be counted, though Democratic voters are modestly more confident in this than Republican voters (72% vs. 65%).
Compared with in-person voters, voters who plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot – regardless of which party they plan to support in their district’s House race this year – say they are more confident that mail ballots will be delivered in time to return them and that they will be returned in time to be counted.
Mail-in ballots will be delivered with enough time to return them:
- 93% of Republican candidate supporters who plan to vote by mail are confident in this, compared with 76% of Republican voters who plan to vote in person.
- 83% of Democratic candidate supporters who plan to vote by mail are confident this will happen, compared with a smaller majority of Democratic voters who plan to vote in person (68%).
| Statement | Group | Voting type | Total | Republican candidate supporters | Democratic candidate supporters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | All RVs | In person at polling places | 75 | 79 | 73 |
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | In person | In person at polling places | 73 | 76 | 68 |
| Mail ballots will be delivered to voters with enough time to return them | By mail | In person at polling places | 86 | 93 | 83 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | All RVs | Absentee or mail-in ballot | 69 | 65 | 72 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | In person | Absentee or mail-in ballot | 66 | 62 | 70 |
| The Postal Service will return voters’ mail ballots to election offices in time to be counted | By mail | Absentee or mail-in ballot | 76 | 72 | 76 |
The Postal Service will return ballots to election offices in time to be counted:
- 72% of Republican candidate supporters who plan to vote by mail are confident the Postal Service will return their ballots to election centers in time to be counted.
- 62% of Republican voters who plan to vote in person say the same.
- Among Democratic candidate supporters, mail and absentee voters are somewhat more likely than in-person voters to have confidence mail ballots will be returned in time (76% vs 70%).
