The 2026 Midterms Will Be Uniquely Difficult for Polls
Polls haven’t gotten worse, but fake respondents, synthetic AI surveys and election unknowns make the 2026 midterms uniquely hard to poll.
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Polls haven’t gotten worse, but fake respondents, synthetic AI surveys and election unknowns make the 2026 midterms uniquely hard to poll.
Among the 8% of U.S. adults using chatbots for this purpose, most have sought information about candidates or issues in the elections.
Most voters expect well-run 2026 midterms, but Republicans and Democrats differ on noncitizen voting safeguards and whether eligible citizens can vote if they choose to.
Democratic congressional candidates have a sizable advantage among Latino registered voters. And Latino Democratic candidate supporters are more engaged with this year’s election compared with four years ago.
Americans overall see the Democrats as having a better chance to win a House majority than take control of the Senate.
The 2026 midterm election comes amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and near-record low approval ratings for Trump.
74 House members won’t return next Congress – more than before any general election since 1992.
The share of eligible voters who are White has declined since 2006, while the Hispanic and Asian shares have nearly doubled. The share of Black eligible voters has changed little over the same period.
Just over half of Americans are confident the 2026 midterms will be fair.
Americans are now almost evenly split over which party they most agree with on economic policies: 37% say the Democrats, while 36% say the GOP.
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