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A new evaluation of the Center’s national American Trends Panel finds little evidence that panel estimates are affected by errors associated with panel conditioning, a phenomenon that occurs when survey participation changes respondents’ true or reported behavior over time.
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
The difference in support for the death penalty by survey mode has important consequences for understanding trends on the issue.
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election.
Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP) is now the Center’s principal source of data for U.S. public opinion research.
A new telephone survey experiment finds that an opinion poll drawn from a commercial voter file produces results similar to those from a sample based on random-digit dialing.
An experiment comparing responses to 27 questions fielded on both a telephone and a web survey found no significant mode differences in overall opinion about Trump or many of his signature policy positions.
International polling provides information about how people in different countries are thinking about issues like immigration, technology, religion, you name it. But polling in different parts of the world can be very challenging, because what works in one country may not work in a different country.
Recent events – including the 2016 presidential election and Brexit – have rattled public confidence in polls. But this video explains why well-designed polls can still be trusted and remain an important way to measure public opinion.
The second video in Pew Research Center’s Methods 101 series helps explain question wording – a concept at the center of sound public opinion survey research – and why it’s important.
The first video in Pew Research Center’s Methods 101 series helps explain random sampling – a concept that lies at the heart of all probability-based survey research – and why it’s important.