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Methodological Research
Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
Q&A: After misses in 2016 and 2020, does polling need to be fixed again? What our survey experts say
What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Measuring Religion in Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel
All Methodological Research Publications
Black and Hispanic Americans See Their Origins as Central to Who They Are, Less So for White Adults
About half of Americans see their identity reflected very well in the census’s race and ethnicity questions.
Jewish Americans in 2020: Answers to frequently asked questions
Here are answers to some frequently asked questions about Pew Research Center’s report “Jewish Americans in 2020”
National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS)
NPORS is an annual survey of U.S. adults conducted by the Pew Research Center.
Q&A: How Pew Research Center studied press coverage of the Biden administration’s early days
We thought it would be valuable to combine our study of news coverage itself with data on people’s views about, and exposure to, that coverage.
Q&A: After misses in 2016 and 2020, does polling need to be fixed again? What our survey experts say
Polling organizations have taken close looks at how election surveys are designed, administered and analyzed. We are no exception.
How we know the drop in Trump’s approval rating in January reflected a real shift in public opinion
The 9-point fall in approval was the largest change between two Pew Research Center polls since Donald Trump took office.
Measuring Religion in Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel
Since the establishment of the ATP, the Center has gradually migrated away from telephone polling and toward online survey administration, and since early 2019, the Center has conducted most of its U.S. polling on the ATP. This shift has major implications for the way the Center measures trends in American religion – including those from the Center’s flagship Religious Landscape Studies, which were conducted by phone in 2007 and 2014.
How accurate will the 2020 U.S. census be? We’ll know more soon
The coronavirus outbreak inflicted disruptions on 2020 census operations, raising questions about how accurate the decennial count will be.
Most Americans don’t answer cellphone calls from unknown numbers
Eight-in-ten Americans say they don’t generally answer their cellphone when an unknown number calls, our survey found.
Measuring News Consumption in a Digital Era
As news outlets morph and multiply, both surveys and passive data collection tools face challenges.
Signature Reports
A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition
While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election.
Growing and Improving Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel
Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP) is now the Center’s principal source of data for U.S. public opinion research.
Comparing Survey Sampling Strategies: Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files
A new telephone survey experiment finds that an opinion poll drawn from a commercial voter file produces results similar to those from a sample based on random-digit dialing.
Are Telephone Polls Understating Support for Trump?
An experiment comparing responses to 27 questions fielded on both a telephone and a web survey found no significant mode differences in overall opinion about Trump or many of his signature policy positions.
Features
Methods 101 Video: How is polling done around the world?
Video: Can we still trust polls?
Methods 101 Video: Survey Question Wording
Methods 101 Video: Random Sampling
