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Featured Methods Publications
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
The real environment in which polls are conducted bears little resemblance to the idealized settings presented in textbooks.
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