Americans see Democrats as having a better chance to win a House majority than take control of the Senate, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. And the public’s expectations differ widely by party.
% of U.S. adults who say the __ will hold a majority in the Senate …
% of U.S. adults who say the __ will hold a majority in the House of Representatives …
| Group | Chamber | Democratic Party | Republican Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| All U.S. adults | Senate | 46 | 48 |
| Rep/Lean Rep | Senate | 22 | 75 |
| Dem/Lean Dem | Senate | 71 | 27 |
| All U.S. adults | House | 55 | 40 |
| Rep/Lean Rep | House | 30 | 68 |
| Dem/Lean Dem | House | 80 | 17 |
A majority of U.S. adults (55%) expect Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives, while 40% say Republicans will keep the majority, according to the survey conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4 among 5,062 adults.
Americans are divided when it comes to the Senate: 48% predict Republicans will maintain their majority, and 46% think Democrats will flip control.
In general, it’s best practice in surveys not to ask everyday Americans to play the role of a political pundit. But these so-called “citizen forecasts” serve as a measurement of Americans’ expectations going into an election. And the balance of Americans’ opinion generally tracks with how observers see the political environment.
Even as the public overall sees a greater likelihood of Democrats winning the House than the Senate, Americans’ predictions appear rooted in their partisan affiliation. Majorities in both partisan camps think their party will win control of both chambers of Congress.
- 80% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents say the Democratic Party will flip the House, while 71% say it will capture the Senate.
- 68% of Republicans and Republican leaners say the GOP will retain the House majority, and 75% think it will hold the Senate.
Taken together, Americans’ expectations for the 120th Congress are mixed:
| Group | House | Senate | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| All adults | Dem | Dem | 41 |
| All adults | Dem | Rep | 14 |
| All adults | Rep | Dem | 5 |
| All adults | Rep | Rep | 34 |
| Rep/Lean Rep | Dem | Dem | 16 |
| Rep/Lean Rep | Dem | Rep | 13 |
| Rep/Lean Rep | Rep | Dem | 6 |
| Rep/Lean Rep | Rep | Rep | 62 |
| Dem/Lean Dem | Dem | Dem | 65 |
| Dem/Lean Dem | Dem | Rep | 14 |
| Dem/Lean Dem | Rep | Dem | 5 |
| Dem/Lean Dem | Rep | Rep | 12 |
- 41% think Democrats will control both chambers of Congress.
- 34% think Republicans will control both chambers.
- 14% think Democrats will win the House, but Republicans will win the Senate.
- 5% think Democrats will win the Senate, but Republicans will win the House.
Both partisan coalitions are roughly evenly confident in their side’s prospects. About two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic leaners (65%) think the elections will result in a Democratic sweep on Capitol Hill, while 62% of Republicans and Republican leaners think the GOP will retain control of both chambers.
Note: Here are the survey questions used for this analysis, the detailed responses and the survey methodology.
