White evangelical Protestant and White Catholic registered voters prefer Republican candidates over Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives. Registered voters in every other religious group we can analyze either are split roughly evenly or favor Democratic candidates in this year’s midterm elections, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
Overall, registered voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates than Republican ones. And registered voters who support Democratic candidates are more engaged in the election and more motivated to vote than those who back Republican candidates.
For a complete analysis of the survey results, read “With Americans in a Sour Mood, Democratic Voters Are More Engaged in Midterms.”
The survey, conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, also finds that President Donald Trump’s approval ratings among members of every religious group we can study are among the lowest of his second term. Even religious groups who have traditionally been his strongest supporters see him less favorably than they used to.
Which religious groups are most likely to support Republicans or Democrats?
| group | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate | NET Another candidate/Not sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All registered voters | 1 | 44 | 36 | 20 |
| Protestant | 2 | 32 | 49 | 19 |
| White evangelical Prot. | 2 | 12 | 73 | 16 |
| White Prot., not evangelical | 2 | 37 | 45 | 17 |
| Black Prot. | 2 | 74 | 6 | 20 |
| Catholic | 2 | 42 | 39 | 19 |
| White Catholic | 2 | 32 | 50 | 18 |
| Hispanic Catholic | 2 | 59 | 19 | 21 |
| Religiously unaffiliated | 2 | 61 | 17 | 22 |
| Atheist | 2 | 81 | 9 | 10 |
| Agnostic | 2 | 75 | 13 | 11 |
| Nothing in particular | 2 | 48 | 22 | 29 |
Roughly three-quarters of White evangelical Protestant registered voters (73%) now say they would vote for their congressional district’s Republican candidate for the House if the election were held today. A far smaller share (12%) say they would support the Democratic candidate.
White Catholic voters also express more support for Republicans than for Democrats in their districts, though by a much narrower margin (50% vs. 32%).
White nonevangelical Protestant voters are split about evenly. The difference between the shares supporting Republican candidates (45%) and Democratic candidates (37%) is not statistically significant.
There is far more support for Democrats than Republicans among Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, atheists, agnostics and those who describe their religion as “nothing in particular.”
This analysis is based on all registered voters, but many are not expected to vote in the midterm elections. For example, 46% of those eligible voted in the 2022 midterm elections. Our validated voter surveys include information about how various religious groups voted in the 2024 presidential election and the 2022 midterms.
How different religious groups feel about Trump
Since the beginning of his second term, Trump’s approval rating has dropped significantly among all U.S. adults. The downward trend is evident in every religious group. (Note that this analysis of presidential approval ratings is based on all respondents, not just registered voters.)
| All Protestant | White evang. Protestant | White Prot., not evang. | Black Prot. | All Catholic | White Catholic | Hispanic Catholic | All relig. unaffiliated | Atheist | Agnostic | Nothing in particular | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Feb 2025 | 58 | 78 | 57 | 18 | 47 | 59 | 31 | 33 | 17 | 22 | 41 |
| Apr-25 | 50 | 72 | 51 | 10 | 42 | 51 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| Jun-25 | 53 | 74 | 51 | 15 | 43 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 13 | 20 | 34 |
| Aug-25 | 50 | 70 | 51 | 16 | 38 | 48 | 25 | 24 | 12 | 17 | 31 |
| Sep-25 | 50 | 72 | 52 | 15 | 41 | 56 | 23 | 26 | 9 | 22 | 33 |
| Jan-26 | 47 | 69 | 46 | 12 | 39 | 52 | 23 | 24 | 8 | 19 | 30 |
| Apr-26 | 45 | 65 | 43 | 11 | 35 | 49 | 18 | 21 | 9 | 15 | 27 |
| Jul-26 | 43 | 64 | 40 | 11 | 33 | 44 | 20 | 21 | 12 | 15 | 26 |
| Sep-Oct 2026 | 39 | 58 | 38 | 7 | 30 | 39 | 18 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 21 |
Today, White evangelical Protestants are the only religious group in which more people approve than disapprove of Trump’s job performance (58% vs. 40%). In every other group, more disapprove than approve. Atheists, agnostics and Black Protestants are the most likely to disapprove of Trump’s handling of the job.
| group | Approve | Disapprove | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All U.S. adults | 1 | 30 | 68 |
| Protestant | 2 | 39 | 58 |
| White evangelical Prot. | 2 | 58 | 40 |
| White Prot., not evangelical | 2 | 38 | 60 |
| Black Prot. | 2 | 7 | 90 |
| Catholic | 2 | 30 | 67 |
| White Catholic | 2 | 39 | 59 |
| Hispanic Catholic | 2 | 18 | 78 |
| Religiously unaffiliated | 2 | 17 | 82 |
| Atheist | 2 | 8 | 92 |
| Agnostic | 2 | 12 | 87 |
| Nothing in particular | 2 | 21 | 77 |
Note: Here are the survey questions used for this analysis, the detailed responses and the survey methodology.
