Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World

Have Americans’ wages kept up with inflation? That depends

A New York City grocery store on Jan. 16, 1980, and a Washington, D.C., grocery store on April 12, 2026. (Barbara Alper/Getty Images; Al Drago/Getty Images)
A New York City grocery store on Jan. 16, 1980, and a Washington, D.C., grocery store on April 12, 2026. (Barbara Alper/Getty Images; Al Drago/Getty Images)

Inflation in the United States reached its highest level in three years in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). And many Americans are feeling the pinch: In a Pew Research Center survey also conducted in April, 66% of U.S. adults said inflation is a very big problem facing the nation, up from 63% last year.

With many Americans worried about prices, it’s worth looking at whether workers’ wages have been rising quickly enough to keep up. Like a lot of things in economics, however, there’s not one definitive answer. Determining whether wages have kept up with inflation depends on many factors: how you define wages, which set of workers you examine, how you measure inflation and which time period you choose to analyze.

In this analysis, we’ll show how changing just one of those factors – how you measure inflation – can significantly alter the overall picture. Without adjusting for inflation, median weekly wages more than doubled between the end of 1999 and the end of 2025, from $482 to $1,040. Factor in inflation, though, and real buying power over that span rose by anywhere from 11% to 22%, depending on which price index you use.

About this research

This Pew Research Center analysis examines how real wages in the United States have changed in recent decades, based on different measures of inflation.

Why did we do this?

Pew Research Center conducts research to help the public, journalists and decision-makers understand important topics. This project adds to the Center’s research on the economy and work.

How did we do this?

To examine Americans’ wages, we obtained Current Population Survey data on weekly earnings of employed civilian wage and salary workers from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), a project of the University of Minnesota.

We used weekly earnings for ease of comprehension and because average hours worked per week have been fairly stable in recent years, aside from during the Great Recession and the years during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We used median earnings rather than average earnings because averages are more easily skewed by the very high salaries some people earn. (“Median” here means half of all workers earned more and half earned less.) The wage data excludes self-employment earnings.

After calculating median weekly earnings for each month, we adjusted them for inflation using three indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers and the CPI Retroactive Series. We also used the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, another widely cited inflation metric, produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Our analysis period starts in December 1999, the earliest month with data from all four inflation indexes we used. It ends in December 2025, the most recent available month for the retroactive series mentioned above.

Measuring inflation with the main Consumer Price Index

The most frequently reported inflation measure is the Consumer Price Index – officially, the “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers,” or CPI-U.


How much would the median weekly wage in 1999 be worth today?
Using four measures of inflation
Note: Figures represent median weekly earnings of employed wage and salary workers.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of IPUMS-CPS earnings data, Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) variants and Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER


How much would the median weekly wage in 1999 be worth today?
Using four measures of inflation
Inflation indexMedian weekly earnings in December 1999Inflation adjusted to December 2025Percent change
Main CPI$482$928+93%
Chained CPI$482$865.77+80%
CPI retroactive series$482$933.14+94%
PCE$482$851.72+77%

Note: Figures represent median weekly earnings of employed wage and salary workers.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of IPUMS-CPS earnings data, Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) variants and Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER

  • Using the CPI-U, the median weekly wage of $482 in December 1999 was equivalent to about $928 in December 2025. Over that span, the median wage’s real buying power grew by 12.1%.

The BLS has been gathering consumer price data and calculating inflation rates in one form or another since World War I, with official estimates going back even further to 1913. Today, the CPI-U is based on a monthly survey of retail prices for hundreds of specific goods and services, collectively known as the “market basket.”

The CPI-U is valued not just for its long history, which makes comparisons over time easier, but also for its timeliness, with fresh readings every month. And it has a close connection with household spending on a wide range of goods and services. If you want to know how the price of milk has changed since the 1950s, it’s hard to beat the CPI-U.

Related: What’s inside the consumer price index?

The CPI-U tends to produce higher inflation readings than other measures, and some economists have argued that it overstates actual inflation. One criticism is that the CPI-U is slow to reflect changes in consumer buying habits. For instance, if steak prices rise and consumers respond by switching to buying cheaper chicken, the market basket that underpins the index may have too much steak in it and not enough chicken, pushing up the reported inflation rate.

For many decades, the BLS only updated the makeup of its market basket every 10 or 15 years. The agency now updates its basket annually, but the criticisms have persisted (as have other critiques, such as its way of estimating shelter costs). Other analysts have defended the CPI’s basic methodology as fundamentally sound but have suggested additional ways to improve its timeliness.

Measuring inflation with other versions of the Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index has several other variants, some of which try to address the perceived shortcomings of the main index. Some of the more prominent alternatives are the “Chained Consumer Price Index” (C-CPI-U) and the “Consumer Price Index retroactive series using current methods” (R-CPI-U-RS).


Various inflation gauges show similar patterns but differ in details
Year-over-year inflation rates, using four measures
Chart
Chart
Chart
Note: Data for CPI index variants is not available for October 2025 due to a government shutdown.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) variants and Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Various inflation gauges show similar patterns but differ in details
Year-over-year inflation rates, using four measures
DateMain CPICPI retroactive seriesChained CPIPCE
1971-01-015.29%4.44%
1971-02-015.00%4.33%
1971-03-014.71%4.41%
1971-04-014.16%4.30%
1971-05-014.40%4.40%
1971-06-014.64%4.59%
1971-07-014.36%4.52%
1971-08-014.62%4.55%
1971-09-014.08%4.24%
1971-10-013.81%3.88%
1971-11-013.28%3.69%
1971-12-013.27%3.64%
1972-01-013.27%3.84%
1972-02-013.51%3.95%
1972-03-013.50%3.76%
1972-04-013.49%3.51%
1972-05-013.23%3.31%
1972-06-012.71%3.01%
1972-07-012.95%3.07%
1972-08-012.94%3.07%
1972-09-013.19%3.37%
1972-10-013.42%3.33%
1972-11-013.67%3.42%
1972-12-013.41%3.35%
1973-01-013.65%3.24%
1973-02-013.87%3.37%
1973-03-014.59%3.96%
1973-04-015.06%4.57%
1973-05-015.53%4.85%
1973-06-016.00%5.29%
1973-07-015.73%5.30%
1973-08-017.38%6.20%
1973-09-017.36%6.15%
1973-10-017.80%6.63%
1973-11-018.25%7.18%
1973-12-018.71%7.72%
1974-01-019.39%8.43%
1974-02-0110.02%9.12%
1974-03-0110.39%9.60%
1974-04-0110.09%9.56%
1974-05-0110.71%10.10%
1974-06-0110.86%10.41%
1974-07-0111.51%10.82%
1974-08-0110.86%10.70%
1974-09-0111.95%11.41%
1974-10-0112.06%11.57%
1974-11-0112.20%11.50%
1974-12-0112.34%11.46%
1975-01-0111.80%11.09%
1975-02-0111.23%10.41%
1975-03-0110.25%9.51%
1975-04-0110.21%9.11%
1975-05-019.47%8.48%
1975-06-019.39%8.24%
1975-07-019.72%8.37%
1975-08-018.60%7.71%
1975-09-017.91%7.13%
1975-10-017.44%6.99%
1975-11-017.38%6.87%
1975-12-016.94%6.62%
1976-01-016.72%6.36%
1976-02-016.29%5.93%
1976-03-016.07%5.73%
1976-04-016.05%5.61%
1976-05-016.20%5.69%
1976-06-015.97%5.49%
1976-07-015.35%5.13%
1976-08-015.71%5.25%
1976-09-015.49%5.32%
1976-10-015.46%5.26%
1976-11-014.88%5.06%
1976-12-014.86%5.07%
1977-01-015.22%5.28%
1977-02-015.91%5.97%
1977-03-016.44%6.34%
1977-04-016.95%6.72%
1977-05-016.73%6.75%
1977-06-016.87%6.88%
1977-07-016.83%6.89%
1977-08-016.62%6.80%
1977-09-016.60%6.60%
1977-10-016.39%6.54%
1977-11-016.72%6.67%
1977-12-016.70%6.59%
1978-01-016.84%6.60%
1978-02-016.43%6.26%
1978-03-016.55%6.42%
1978-04-016.50%6.60%
1978-05-016.97%6.83%
1978-06-017.41%6.92%
1978-07-017.70%6.95%
1978-08-017.84%7.00%
1978-09-018.31%7.20%
1978-10-018.93%7.55%
1978-11-018.89%7.55%
1978-12-019.02%7.80%7.53%
1979-01-019.28%8.16%7.70%
1979-02-019.86%8.51%7.78%
1979-03-0110.09%8.74%7.92%
1979-04-0110.49%8.86%8.23%
1979-05-0110.85%9.07%8.57%
1979-06-0110.89%9.19%8.76%
1979-07-0111.26%9.62%8.99%
1979-08-0111.82%9.95%9.27%
1979-09-0112.18%10.37%9.61%
1979-10-0112.07%10.50%9.63%
1979-11-0112.61%10.44%9.77%
1979-12-0113.29%10.85%10.18%
1980-01-0113.91%11.13%10.50%
1980-02-0114.18%11.58%11.10%
1980-03-0114.76%11.83%11.60%
1980-04-0114.73%11.54%11.02%
1980-05-0114.41%11.24%10.74%
1980-06-0114.38%11.04%10.52%
1980-07-0113.13%10.77%10.54%
1980-08-0112.87%10.86%10.61%
1980-09-0112.60%10.93%10.66%
1980-10-0112.77%10.86%10.64%
1980-11-0112.65%10.97%10.78%
1980-12-0112.52%10.79%10.57%
1981-01-0111.83%10.60%10.47%
1981-02-0111.41%10.46%10.39%
1981-03-0110.49%10.10%9.81%
1981-04-0110.00%9.94%9.72%
1981-05-019.78%9.71%9.36%
1981-06-019.55%9.47%9.11%
1981-07-0110.76%9.57%8.92%
1981-08-0110.80%9.41%8.70%
1981-09-0110.95%9.16%8.35%
1981-10-0110.14%8.95%7.98%
1981-11-019.59%8.67%7.68%
1981-12-018.92%8.31%7.32%
1982-01-018.39%7.93%6.93%
1982-02-017.62%7.03%6.18%
1982-03-016.78%6.31%5.71%
1982-04-016.51%5.76%5.31%
1982-05-016.68%5.95%5.46%
1982-06-017.06%6.34%5.80%
1982-07-016.44%6.30%5.79%
1982-08-015.85%5.76%5.46%
1982-09-015.04%5.43%5.11%
1982-10-015.14%5.48%5.23%
1982-11-014.59%5.32%4.98%
1982-12-013.83%5.02%4.81%
1983-01-013.71%4.72%4.68%
1983-02-013.49%4.42%4.54%
1983-03-013.60%4.35%4.41%
1983-04-013.90%5.10%4.83%
1983-05-013.55%4.86%4.51%
1983-06-012.58%4.20%4.15%
1983-07-012.46%3.91%4.12%
1983-08-012.56%4.03%4.24%
1983-09-012.86%4.08%4.32%
1983-10-012.85%3.86%3.91%
1983-11-013.27%3.72%3.74%
1983-12-013.79%3.78%3.64%
1984-01-014.19%4.11%3.61%
1984-02-014.60%4.57%4.13%
1984-03-014.80%4.70%4.34%
1984-04-014.56%4.33%4.26%
1984-05-014.23%4.11%4.10%
1984-06-014.22%4.03%3.90%
1984-07-014.20%3.95%3.68%
1984-08-014.29%4.07%3.56%
1984-09-014.27%3.98%3.34%
1984-10-014.26%3.97%3.40%
1984-11-014.05%3.91%3.40%
1984-12-013.95%3.84%3.64%
1985-01-013.53%3.37%3.70%
1985-02-013.52%3.29%3.49%
1985-03-013.70%3.54%3.56%
1985-04-013.69%3.52%3.31%
1985-05-013.77%3.57%3.43%
1985-06-013.76%3.56%3.52%
1985-07-013.55%3.43%3.41%
1985-08-013.35%3.17%3.43%
1985-09-013.14%3.09%3.47%
1985-10-013.23%3.08%3.39%
1985-11-013.51%3.39%3.55%
1985-12-013.80%3.57%3.60%
1986-01-013.89%3.75%3.56%
1986-02-013.11%3.00%3.09%
1986-03-012.26%2.07%2.46%
1986-04-011.59%1.40%2.10%
1986-05-011.49%1.33%2.05%
1986-06-011.77%1.57%2.15%
1986-07-011.58%1.39%1.92%
1986-08-011.57%1.38%1.72%
1986-09-011.75%1.56%1.88%
1986-10-011.47%1.38%1.89%
1986-11-011.28%1.07%1.78%
1986-12-011.10%0.89%1.58%
1987-01-011.46%1.19%1.59%
1987-02-012.10%1.90%1.94%
1987-03-013.03%2.81%2.44%
1987-04-013.78%3.59%3.03%
1987-05-013.86%3.58%3.10%
1987-06-013.65%3.45%3.11%
1987-07-013.93%3.63%3.32%
1987-08-014.28%4.04%3.60%
1987-09-014.36%3.96%3.61%
1987-10-014.53%4.13%3.75%
1987-11-014.53%4.19%3.76%
1987-12-014.43%4.07%3.81%
1988-01-014.05%3.75%3.73%
1988-02-013.94%3.50%3.52%
1988-03-013.93%3.49%3.60%
1988-04-013.90%3.47%3.72%
1988-05-013.89%3.52%3.75%
1988-06-013.96%3.51%3.80%
1988-07-014.13%3.73%4.07%
1988-08-014.02%3.59%3.96%
1988-09-014.17%3.75%4.12%
1988-10-014.25%3.80%4.13%
1988-11-014.25%3.79%4.17%
1988-12-014.42%3.91%4.30%
1989-01-014.67%4.12%4.43%
1989-02-014.83%4.29%4.63%
1989-03-014.98%4.44%4.66%
1989-04-015.12%4.64%4.84%
1989-05-015.36%4.79%4.92%
1989-06-015.17%4.66%4.71%
1989-07-014.98%4.54%4.45%
1989-08-014.71%4.19%4.15%
1989-09-014.34%3.89%3.88%
1989-10-014.49%4.04%3.94%
1989-11-014.66%4.15%3.93%
1989-12-014.65%4.20%3.91%
1990-01-015.20%4.72%4.16%
1990-02-015.26%4.87%4.27%
1990-03-015.23%4.84%4.28%
1990-04-014.71%4.27%3.80%
1990-05-014.36%3.93%3.66%
1990-06-014.67%4.24%3.89%
1990-07-014.82%4.39%3.90%
1990-08-015.62%5.18%4.58%
1990-09-016.16%5.69%4.98%
1990-10-016.29%5.82%5.17%
1990-11-016.27%5.81%5.08%
1990-12-016.11%5.70%4.87%
1991-01-015.65%5.13%4.48%
1991-02-015.31%4.74%4.08%
1991-03-014.90%4.31%3.71%
1991-04-014.89%4.25%3.68%
1991-05-014.95%4.40%3.87%
1991-06-014.70%4.07%3.59%
1991-07-014.45%3.75%3.50%
1991-08-013.80%3.12%3.05%
1991-09-013.39%2.74%2.78%
1991-10-012.92%2.23%2.38%
1991-11-012.99%2.33%2.48%
1991-12-013.06%2.38%2.64%
1992-01-012.60%2.12%2.39%
1992-02-012.82%2.26%2.60%
1992-03-013.19%2.61%2.82%
1992-04-013.18%2.70%2.91%
1992-05-013.02%2.55%2.63%
1992-06-013.09%2.54%2.63%
1992-07-013.16%2.64%2.81%
1992-08-013.15%2.63%2.71%
1992-09-012.99%2.47%2.52%
1992-10-013.20%2.72%2.70%
1992-11-013.05%2.61%2.67%
1992-12-012.90%2.47%2.59%
1993-01-013.26%2.61%2.70%
1993-02-013.25%2.70%2.60%
1993-03-013.09%2.59%2.56%
1993-04-013.23%2.63%2.56%
1993-05-013.22%2.72%2.74%
1993-06-013.00%2.62%2.59%
1993-07-012.78%2.48%2.42%
1993-08-012.77%2.42%2.45%
1993-09-012.69%2.27%2.39%
1993-10-012.75%2.31%2.35%
1993-11-012.68%2.26%2.35%
1993-12-012.75%2.27%2.19%
1994-01-012.52%2.12%1.98%
1994-02-012.52%2.02%2.06%
1994-03-012.51%2.06%2.13%
1994-04-012.36%1.91%1.98%
1994-05-012.29%1.81%1.81%
1994-06-012.49%2.00%2.03%
1994-07-012.77%2.18%2.19%
1994-08-012.90%2.32%2.25%
1994-09-012.96%2.36%2.25%
1994-10-012.61%2.08%2.11%
1994-11-012.67%2.12%2.11%
1994-12-012.67%2.17%2.15%
1995-01-012.80%2.35%2.32%
1995-02-012.86%2.44%2.27%
1995-03-012.85%2.38%2.17%
1995-04-013.05%2.61%2.32%
1995-05-013.19%2.65%2.33%
1995-06-013.04%2.60%2.18%
1995-07-012.76%2.41%1.99%
1995-08-012.62%2.27%1.97%
1995-09-012.54%2.26%1.93%
1995-10-012.81%2.49%2.02%
1995-11-012.61%2.26%1.82%
1995-12-012.54%2.26%1.95%
1996-01-012.73%2.39%1.97%
1996-02-012.65%2.42%1.95%
1996-03-012.84%2.59%2.07%
1996-04-012.90%2.63%2.11%
1996-05-012.89%2.71%2.13%
1996-06-012.75%2.53%2.03%
1996-07-012.95%2.66%2.12%
1996-08-012.88%2.57%1.99%
1996-09-013.00%2.74%2.21%
1996-10-012.99%2.78%2.26%
1996-11-013.26%3.05%2.44%
1996-12-013.32%3.09%2.36%
1997-01-013.04%2.90%2.27%
1997-02-013.03%2.80%2.32%
1997-03-012.76%2.53%2.12%
1997-04-012.50%2.30%1.92%
1997-05-012.23%1.99%1.69%
1997-06-012.30%2.12%1.83%
1997-07-012.23%1.99%1.67%
1997-08-012.23%2.07%1.66%
1997-09-012.15%2.07%1.61%
1997-10-012.08%1.93%1.44%
1997-11-011.83%1.71%1.26%
1997-12-011.70%1.54%1.13%
1998-01-011.57%1.41%1.04%
1998-02-011.44%1.32%0.78%
1998-03-011.37%1.23%0.69%
1998-04-011.44%1.32%0.72%
1998-05-011.69%1.53%0.90%
1998-06-011.68%1.40%0.69%
1998-07-011.68%1.48%0.88%
1998-08-011.62%1.44%0.93%
1998-09-011.49%1.22%0.63%
1998-10-011.49%1.26%0.72%
1998-11-011.55%1.31%0.72%
1998-12-011.61%1.39%0.84%
1999-01-011.67%1.47%0.94%
1999-02-011.61%1.43%0.93%
1999-03-011.73%1.60%0.99%
1999-04-012.28%2.10%1.35%
1999-05-012.09%1.92%1.28%
1999-06-011.96%1.92%1.40%
1999-07-012.14%2.09%1.42%
1999-08-012.26%2.25%1.46%
1999-09-012.63%2.58%1.89%
1999-10-012.56%2.58%1.83%
1999-11-012.62%2.62%1.92%
1999-12-012.68%2.70%2.05%
2000-01-012.74%2.78%2.19%
2000-02-013.22%3.28%2.57%
2000-03-013.76%3.80%2.93%
2000-04-013.07%3.12%2.35%
2000-05-013.19%3.20%2.37%
2000-06-013.73%3.78%2.68%
2000-07-013.66%3.68%2.67%
2000-08-013.41%3.39%2.48%
2000-09-013.45%3.49%2.55%
2000-10-013.45%3.40%2.51%
2000-11-013.45%3.44%2.57%
2000-12-013.39%3.36%2.60%2.48%
2001-01-013.73%3.72%2.99%2.70%
2001-02-013.53%3.53%2.78%2.54%
2001-03-012.92%2.95%2.26%2.11%
2001-04-013.27%3.30%2.56%2.37%
2001-05-013.62%3.62%2.85%2.56%
2001-06-013.25%3.24%2.64%2.39%
2001-07-012.72%2.72%2.15%2.10%
2001-08-012.72%2.76%2.25%2.10%
2001-09-012.65%2.59%2.04%1.31%
2001-10-012.13%2.16%1.75%1.53%
2001-11-011.90%1.88%1.56%1.32%
2001-12-011.55%1.57%1.27%1.06%
2002-01-011.14%1.17%0.87%0.67%
2002-02-011.14%1.12%0.77%0.68%
2002-03-011.48%1.43%1.15%0.94%
2002-04-011.64%1.62%1.34%1.19%
2002-05-011.18%1.19%0.96%0.99%
2002-06-011.07%1.07%0.76%0.94%
2002-07-011.46%1.46%1.15%1.19%
2002-08-011.80%1.77%1.34%1.40%
2002-09-011.51%1.53%1.33%1.93%
2002-10-012.03%2.03%1.62%1.76%
2002-11-012.20%2.23%1.82%1.93%
2002-12-012.38%2.39%2.02%2.13%
2003-01-012.60%2.54%2.21%2.35%
2003-02-012.98%2.99%2.68%2.60%
2003-03-013.02%3.05%2.66%2.59%
2003-04-012.22%2.20%1.99%1.99%
2003-05-012.06%2.09%1.80%1.80%
2003-06-012.11%2.12%1.89%1.79%
2003-07-012.11%2.12%1.89%1.86%
2003-08-012.16%2.15%2.08%2.01%
2003-09-012.32%2.34%2.07%2.14%
2003-10-012.04%2.07%1.88%1.97%
2003-11-011.77%1.77%1.60%2.00%
2003-12-011.88%1.88%1.70%2.12%
2004-01-011.93%1.99%1.88%2.21%
2004-02-011.69%1.71%1.68%2.00%
2004-03-011.74%1.74%1.67%1.90%
2004-04-012.29%2.34%2.14%2.26%
2004-05-013.05%3.05%2.88%2.71%
2004-06-013.27%3.23%2.97%2.89%
2004-07-012.99%3.00%2.79%2.68%
2004-08-012.65%2.66%2.31%2.39%
2004-09-012.54%2.54%2.30%2.27%
2004-10-013.19%3.17%2.95%2.70%
2004-11-013.52%3.55%3.33%2.97%
2004-12-013.26%3.26%3.15%2.79%
2005-01-012.97%2.91%2.58%2.53%
2005-02-013.01%2.96%2.57%2.60%
2005-03-013.15%3.13%2.64%2.75%
2005-04-013.51%3.48%3.09%2.84%
2005-05-012.80%2.85%2.44%2.57%
2005-06-012.53%2.52%2.17%2.34%
2005-07-013.17%3.13%2.71%2.68%
2005-08-013.64%3.63%3.25%3.04%
2005-09-014.69%4.67%4.14%3.83%
2005-10-014.35%4.36%3.67%3.55%
2005-11-013.46%3.43%2.96%2.94%
2005-12-013.42%3.40%2.88%2.88%
2006-01-013.99%4.01%3.50%3.25%
2006-02-013.60%3.59%3.13%3.02%
2006-03-013.36%3.39%3.02%2.91%
2006-04-013.55%3.54%3.09%3.10%
2006-05-014.17%4.10%3.71%3.32%
2006-06-014.32%4.35%3.98%3.51%
2006-07-014.15%4.15%3.87%3.43%
2006-08-013.82%3.85%3.50%3.34%
2006-09-012.06%2.09%1.90%2.08%
2006-10-011.31%1.30%1.21%1.68%
2006-11-011.97%2.00%1.74%1.92%
2006-12-012.54%2.56%2.27%2.29%
2007-01-012.08%2.10%1.85%2.13%
2007-02-012.42%2.44%2.15%2.39%
2007-03-012.78%2.76%2.51%2.56%
2007-04-012.57%2.57%2.37%2.33%
2007-05-012.69%2.73%2.38%2.35%
2007-06-012.69%2.69%2.33%2.32%
2007-07-012.36%2.38%1.93%2.12%
2007-08-011.97%1.94%1.68%1.87%
2007-09-012.76%2.76%2.41%2.53%
2007-10-013.54%3.51%3.23%3.09%
2007-11-014.31%4.30%3.92%3.60%
2007-12-014.08%4.09%3.67%3.47%
2008-01-014.28%4.28%3.87%3.39%
2008-02-014.03%4.02%3.71%3.27%
2008-03-013.98%3.98%3.71%3.19%
2008-04-013.94%3.96%3.72%3.14%
2008-05-014.18%4.16%4.06%3.28%
2008-06-015.02%5.01%4.87%3.81%
2008-07-015.60%5.60%5.43%4.14%
2008-08-015.37%5.38%5.24%3.98%
2008-09-014.94%4.94%4.90%3.67%
2008-10-013.66%3.66%3.82%2.67%
2008-11-011.07%1.07%1.29%0.93%
2008-12-010.09%0.06%0.22%0.13%
2009-01-010.03%0.03%0.19%-0.11%
2009-02-010.24%0.23%0.28%-0.13%
2009-03-01-0.38%-0.38%-0.42%-0.53%
2009-04-01-0.74%-0.73%-0.86%-0.57%
2009-05-01-1.28%-1.26%-1.39%-0.89%
2009-06-01-1.43%-1.40%-1.44%-1.02%
2009-07-01-2.10%-2.11%-2.07%-1.47%
2009-08-01-1.48%-1.46%-1.56%-1.10%
2009-09-01-1.29%-1.28%-1.46%-1.02%
2009-10-01-0.18%-0.16%-0.56%0.01%
2009-11-011.84%1.83%1.42%1.46%
2009-12-012.72%2.72%2.46%2.09%
2010-01-012.63%2.62%2.37%2.30%
2010-02-012.14%2.15%1.94%2.12%
2010-03-012.31%2.31%2.15%2.37%
2010-04-012.24%2.24%2.09%2.28%
2010-05-012.02%2.01%1.82%2.21%
2010-06-011.05%1.04%0.83%1.56%
2010-07-011.24%1.27%1.00%1.64%
2010-08-011.15%1.14%0.91%1.48%
2010-09-011.14%1.14%0.90%1.42%
2010-10-011.17%1.17%0.94%1.36%
2010-11-011.14%1.13%0.91%1.31%
2010-12-011.50%1.52%1.28%1.48%
2011-01-011.63%1.64%1.43%1.56%
2011-02-012.11%2.11%1.91%1.85%
2011-03-012.68%2.69%2.51%2.11%
2011-04-013.16%3.16%3.08%2.49%
2011-05-013.57%3.59%3.44%2.77%
2011-06-013.56%3.57%3.45%2.79%
2011-07-013.63%3.63%3.54%2.88%
2011-08-013.77%3.78%3.65%2.98%
2011-09-013.87%3.87%3.82%3.02%
2011-10-013.53%3.55%3.50%2.69%
2011-11-013.39%3.43%3.40%2.70%
2011-12-012.96%2.99%2.93%2.53%
2012-01-012.93%2.97%2.89%2.57%
2012-02-012.87%2.90%2.82%2.51%
2012-03-012.65%2.68%2.58%2.30%
2012-04-012.30%2.33%2.16%2.00%
2012-05-011.70%1.72%1.66%1.58%
2012-06-011.66%1.69%1.63%1.55%
2012-07-011.41%1.45%1.34%1.41%
2012-08-011.69%1.75%1.59%1.51%
2012-09-011.99%2.04%1.80%1.68%
2012-10-012.16%2.20%1.93%1.98%
2012-11-011.76%1.81%1.55%1.70%
2012-12-011.74%1.78%1.48%1.62%
2013-01-011.59%1.62%1.30%1.47%
2013-02-011.98%2.04%1.72%1.60%
2013-03-011.47%1.52%1.25%1.28%
2013-04-011.06%1.10%0.86%1.04%
2013-05-011.36%1.39%1.11%1.23%
2013-06-011.75%1.81%1.47%1.51%
2013-07-011.96%1.99%1.66%1.60%
2013-08-011.52%1.54%1.26%1.40%
2013-09-011.18%1.24%0.95%1.14%
2013-10-010.96%1.00%0.74%0.98%
2013-11-011.24%1.27%1.05%1.20%
2013-12-011.50%1.54%1.32%1.39%
2014-01-011.58%1.63%1.42%1.41%
2014-02-011.13%1.17%1.00%1.09%
2014-03-011.51%1.55%1.36%1.39%
2014-04-011.95%2.02%1.76%1.67%
2014-05-012.13%2.19%1.94%1.77%
2014-06-012.07%2.13%1.89%1.65%
2014-07-011.99%2.04%1.85%1.67%
2014-08-011.70%1.75%1.51%1.51%
2014-09-011.66%1.69%1.46%1.50%
2014-10-011.66%1.69%1.51%1.33%
2014-11-011.32%1.37%1.13%1.09%
2014-12-010.76%0.79%0.52%0.73%
2015-01-01-0.09%-0.03%-0.40%0.04%
2015-02-01-0.03%0.03%-0.36%0.17%
2015-03-01-0.07%-0.03%-0.30%0.20%
2015-04-01-0.20%-0.14%-0.40%0.11%
2015-05-01-0.04%0.00%-0.18%0.19%
2015-06-010.12%0.17%-0.03%0.27%
2015-07-010.17%0.23%-0.02%0.22%
2015-08-010.20%0.26%0.00%0.24%
2015-09-01-0.04%0.03%-0.27%0.07%
2015-10-010.17%0.23%-0.11%0.10%
2015-11-010.50%0.55%0.21%0.25%
2015-12-010.73%0.78%0.43%0.35%
2016-01-011.37%1.40%1.11%0.87%
2016-02-011.02%1.04%0.67%0.64%
2016-03-010.85%0.89%0.51%0.69%
2016-04-011.13%1.15%0.82%0.93%
2016-05-011.02%1.06%0.68%0.85%
2016-06-011.00%1.00%0.69%0.83%
2016-07-010.83%0.86%0.47%0.76%
2016-08-011.06%1.09%0.66%0.89%
2016-09-011.46%1.46%1.10%1.22%
2016-10-011.64%1.66%1.33%1.43%
2016-11-011.69%1.69%1.37%1.40%
2016-12-012.07%2.10%1.81%1.66%
2017-01-012.50%2.50%2.27%2.01%
2017-02-012.74%2.73%2.56%2.20%
2017-03-012.38%2.37%2.07%1.91%
2017-04-012.20%2.19%1.82%1.77%
2017-05-011.87%1.87%1.48%1.56%
2017-06-011.63%1.64%1.21%1.47%
2017-07-011.73%1.72%1.28%1.49%
2017-08-011.94%1.95%1.53%1.57%
2017-09-012.23%2.25%1.86%1.76%
2017-10-012.04%2.03%1.63%1.68%
2017-11-012.20%2.23%1.80%1.79%
2017-12-012.11%2.09%1.69%1.77%
2018-01-012.07%2.07%1.60%1.76%
2018-02-012.21%2.23%1.74%1.84%
2018-03-012.36%2.34%1.94%2.00%
2018-04-012.46%2.48%2.05%2.05%
2018-05-012.80%2.81%2.32%2.27%
2018-06-012.87%2.86%2.42%2.27%
2018-07-012.95%2.95%2.57%2.34%
2018-08-012.70%2.72%2.29%2.18%
2018-09-012.28%2.29%1.87%2.01%
2018-10-012.52%2.57%2.09%2.05%
2018-11-012.18%2.21%1.80%1.94%
2018-12-011.91%1.93%1.54%1.86%
2019-01-011.55%1.55%1.26%1.43%
2019-02-011.52%1.52%1.25%1.40%
2019-03-011.86%1.87%1.53%1.52%
2019-04-012.00%1.98%1.60%1.57%
2019-05-011.79%1.79%1.43%1.47%
2019-06-011.65%1.67%1.33%1.43%
2019-07-011.81%1.83%1.47%1.45%
2019-08-011.75%1.74%1.46%1.43%
2019-09-011.71%1.73%1.36%1.28%
2019-10-011.76%1.78%1.35%1.29%
2019-11-012.05%2.04%1.60%1.36%
2019-12-012.29%2.29%1.80%1.56%
2020-01-012.49%2.50%1.98%1.79%
2020-02-012.33%2.34%1.84%1.69%
2020-03-011.54%1.60%1.13%1.17%
2020-04-010.33%0.42%0.15%0.46%
2020-05-010.12%0.21%-0.11%0.49%
2020-06-010.65%0.78%0.42%0.76%
2020-07-010.99%1.10%0.93%0.92%
2020-08-011.31%1.44%1.30%1.16%
2020-09-011.37%1.47%1.38%1.28%
2020-10-011.18%1.25%1.21%1.19%
2020-11-011.17%1.27%1.19%1.19%
2020-12-011.36%1.43%1.50%1.33%
2021-01-011.40%1.51%1.60%1.59%
2021-02-011.68%1.81%1.83%1.84%
2021-03-012.62%2.75%2.65%2.67%
2021-04-014.16%4.26%4.00%3.64%
2021-05-014.99%5.18%4.86%4.07%
2021-06-015.39%5.56%5.14%4.31%
2021-07-015.37%5.52%5.03%4.47%
2021-08-015.25%5.37%4.81%4.58%
2021-09-015.39%5.50%5.00%4.74%
2021-10-016.22%6.38%5.81%5.34%
2021-11-016.81%6.94%6.36%5.93%
2021-12-017.04%7.20%6.50%6.14%
2022-01-017.48%7.62%6.83%6.27%
2022-02-017.87%8.02%7.29%6.55%
2022-03-018.54%8.70%8.13%6.93%
2022-04-018.26%8.40%7.93%6.68%
2022-05-018.58%8.62%8.34%6.79%
2022-06-019.06%9.08%8.71%7.24%
2022-07-018.52%8.56%8.11%6.75%
2022-08-018.26%8.33%7.89%6.64%
2022-09-018.20%8.28%7.88%6.67%
2022-10-017.75%7.80%7.57%6.46%
2022-11-017.11%7.19%7.05%6.03%
2022-12-016.45%6.54%6.44%5.52%
2023-01-016.41%6.48%6.42%5.51%
2023-02-016.04%6.08%5.96%5.20%
2023-03-014.98%4.99%4.77%4.43%
2023-04-014.93%4.93%4.69%4.48%
2023-05-014.05%4.05%3.76%4.00%
2023-06-012.97%2.97%2.87%3.28%
2023-07-013.18%3.18%3.00%3.41%
2023-08-013.67%3.67%3.47%3.43%
2023-09-013.70%3.70%3.40%3.45%
2023-10-013.24%3.24%2.89%3.02%
2023-11-013.14%3.14%2.67%2.77%
2023-12-013.35%3.35%2.86%2.77%
2024-01-013.09%3.09%2.62%2.70%
2024-02-013.15%3.15%2.76%2.71%
2024-03-013.48%3.48%3.14%2.93%
2024-04-013.36%3.36%2.98%2.83%
2024-05-013.27%3.27%2.89%2.66%
2024-06-012.97%2.97%2.59%2.55%
2024-07-012.89%2.89%2.54%2.59%
2024-08-012.53%2.53%2.17%2.41%
2024-09-012.44%2.44%2.10%2.26%
2024-10-012.60%2.60%2.29%2.48%
2024-11-012.75%2.75%2.48%2.59%
2024-12-012.89%2.89%2.64%2.73%
2025-01-013.00%3.00%2.75%2.61%
2025-02-012.82%2.82%2.57%2.71%
2025-03-012.39%2.39%2.14%2.36%
2025-04-012.31%2.31%2.09%2.28%
2025-05-012.35%2.35%2.14%2.46%
2025-06-012.67%2.67%2.46%2.59%
2025-07-012.70%2.71%2.56%2.61%
2025-08-012.92%2.92%2.81%2.75%
2025-09-013.01%3.01%2.92%2.79%
2025-10-012.71%
2025-11-012.74%2.74%2.60%2.82%
2025-12-012.68%2.68%2.51%2.88%
2026-01-012.39%2.21%2.86%
2026-02-012.41%2.24%2.83%
2026-03-013.26%3.11%3.50%

Note: Data for CPI index variants is not available for October 2025 due to a government shutdown.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) variants and Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER

The BLS began producing the chained CPI in 2002, with a base month of December 1999. Unlike the main index, this measure accounts for shifts in consumer spending habits between different goods and services. The chained CPI can reflect shifting consumer buying patterns – like more chicken and less steak – faster than the CPI-U.

  • Using the chained CPI, the median weekly wage of $482 in December 1999 was equivalent to nearly $866 in December 2025. The median wage’s real buying power grew by 20.1%.

Meanwhile, the CPI retroactive series is BLS’s best effort to show what inflation in the past would look like if measured consistently with today’s methods. This is important because, over its long history, the BLS has made many changes in how it collects and analyzes price data to produce the CPI-U. The retroactive series is available back to December 1977.

  • Using the CPI retroactive series, the median weekly wage of $482 in December 1999 was equivalent to about $933 in December 2025. The median wage’s real buying power grew by 11.5%.

Measuring inflation with the Personal Consumption Expenditures index

Then there’s the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Separately from the BLS, the Bureau of Economic Analysis produces the PCE as part of its work determining U.S. gross domestic product. The PCE is based on data about what businesses sell, unlike the many CPI variants, which rely on consumer surveys to determine what households buy.

  • Using the PCE, the median weekly wage of $482 in December 1999 was equivalent to almost $852 in December 2025. The median wage’s real buying power grew by 22.1% during that period.

The PCE differs from the CPI family in several key aspects. It includes certain goods and services the CPI doesn’t, and vice versa. And even when the two indexes cover the same goods and services, they weight them differently. The formula for calculating the PCE is also fundamentally different from the CPI formula. Because of those differences, the PCE typically yields a somewhat lower estimate of inflation than the CPI family, though the overall patterns are similar and the gaps are smaller now than they used to be. (In recent months, in fact, PCE inflation has come in a bit higher than CPI inflation.)

Compared with the CPI-U, the PCE shows longer periods of real wage growth – and shorter flat periods – between 1999 and 2025.

Other factors matter, too

As mentioned above, the choice of inflation gauge is just one factor that affects whether wages have kept up with inflation. For instance, you can look at average wages (which can be skewed upward by high earners) or median wages (which are less readily available). You can include or exclude self-employment income, interest, investment dividends and government benefits.


Whether wage growth beats inflation, and by how much, depends on when and how you look
Cumulative real wage growth, after adjusting for inflation using four measures
Note: Time periods shown start and end in December.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of IPUMS CPS earnings data, Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) variants and Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Whether wage growth beats inflation, and by how much, depends on when and how you look
Cumulative real wage growth, after adjusting for inflation using four measures
DateMain CPICPI retroactive seriesChained CPIPCE
2020-12-01-3.2%-3.5%-1.9%-1.0%
2015-12-018.1%7.8%11.2%12.3%
1999-12-0112.1%11.5%20.1%22.1%

Note: Time periods shown start and end in December.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of IPUMS CPS earnings data, Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) variants and Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER

You also need to decide which population you’re interested in: all working people, people whose income primarily comes from wages and salaries, or specific demographic groups? Do you include managers and executives along with “nonsupervisory” workers?

Especially key is the timespan you choose to examine. U.S. inflation has swung from double-digit heights in the 1970s and early 1980s to actual deflation (falling prices) in the depths of the Great Recession. The picture can change markedly depending on how many of those highs and lows you capture in your time period.

For example, from December 2015 to December 2025, median weekly wages outpaced inflation, no matter which index you use. But over the five years leading up to December 2025, real wages fell after factoring in inflation, regardless of the index.