What we learned about online nonprobability polls
The advantages of these online surveys are obvious – they are fast and relatively inexpensive, and the technology for them is pervasive. But are they accurate?
1. Assessing the accuracy of online nonprobability surveys
To better understand the current landscape of commercially available online nonprobability samples, Pew Research Center conducted a study in which an identical questionnaire was administered to nine samples supplied by eight different vendors along with the Center’s probability-based online panel. A benchmarking analysis – in which a subset of each survey’s results was compared to […]
Many Americans say they voted, but did they?
One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.
An additional analysis stemming from the Kuriakose & Robbins piece is a scatter plot showing the number of questions (x-axis) against percentage of near duplicates (y-axis). This raised the question — if more questions in a survey cause a lower near duplicate rate, shouldn’t that be apparent in the scatter plot? One of the problems […]
Nearly Eight-in-Ten Reddit Users Get News on the Site
Presidential candidates were mentioned in over 350,000 comments in May, June and September 2015, with a high level of early interest in Bernie Sanders
Data Quality Deserves an Honest Discussion
While the possibility of falsified data is an important consideration in survey research, a new tool to detect it fails to perform as advertised.
The 2016 Presidential Campaign – a News Event That’s Hard to Miss
About nine-in-ten Americans learn about the election in a given week. But they are divided on what type of news source – from television to digital to radio to print – they find most helpful.
2012 Republican Primary Voters: More Conservative Than GOP General Election Voters
In many ways, GOP primary voters were more conservative than Republican general election voters who didn’t vote in 2012’s primaries, both in their self-identification and their political values.
Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Pew Research Center will call 75% cellphones for surveys in 2016
We’re making this change to ensure our survey samples properly represent the now roughly half (47%) of U.S. adults who only have a cellphone.