Two years after Kamala Harris’ unsuccessful run for president, a rising share of Americans say it’s unlikely a woman will be elected president in their lifetime.
| Extremely/Very likely | Somewhat likely | Not too/Not at all likely | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1/2023 | 25 | 49 | 26 |
| 7/1/2026 | 17 | 44 | 37 |
Some 37% of Americans now say it’s not too or not at all likely that the United States will elect a woman as president, up from 26% in 2023, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
The share who say it’s extremely or very likely has fallen from 25% in 2023 to 17% today. Another 44% say it’s somewhat likely, down from 49%.
Among men and women and Democrats and Republicans alike, relatively few Americans say it’s highly likely that a woman will be president in their lifetime.
At the same time, the share of Americans who say it’s extremely or very important to them personally that the U.S. elects a woman president is unchanged from 2023, with 18% saying this in each survey. Most (66%) say it’s either not important to them or that the gender of the president doesn’t matter. Another 16% say it’s somewhat important.
Who most wants to see a woman president?
While Democrats and Republicans have similar views on the likelihood of a woman president, they differ widely in seeing this as personally important. Three-in-ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say it’s extremely or very important to them that a woman is elected president in their lifetime. This compares with just 5% of Republicans and GOP leaners.
| Extremely/Very important | Somewhat important | Not too/Not at all important/The president’s gender doesn’t matter | Grouping | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All adults | 18 | 16 | 66 | All |
| Men | 12 | 15 | 73 | Gender |
| Women | 22 | 17 | 60 | Gender |
| Rep/Lean Rep | 5 | 8 | 87 | Party |
| Dem/Lean Dem | 30 | 24 | 46 | Party |
Most Republicans (87%) say electing a woman as president is not too or not at all important to them or that the president’s gender doesn’t matter. Fewer than half of Democrats (46%) say the same.
Women are more likely than men (22% vs. 12%) to say it’s highly important to them that a woman is elected president. Still, majorities of men and women (73% and 60%) say it’s not important to them or the president’s gender doesn’t matter.
| Response | Grouping | |
|---|---|---|
| All women | 22 | Among women |
| Rep/Lean Rep | 6 | Among women |
| Dem/Lean Dem | 37 | Among women |
| All men | 12 | Among men |
| Rep/Lean Rep | 3 | Among men |
| Dem/Lean Dem | 22 | Among men |
Democratic women are especially likely to say it’s extremely or very important to them that a woman is elected president: 37% say this, compared with 22% of Democratic men. Only 6% of Republican women, compared with 3% of Republican men, say this is highly important to them.
Among those who say it’s highly important to them that a woman is elected president, 30% say this is extremely or very likely to happen in their lifetime. Another 30% say it’s not too or not at all likely, while 40% say it’s somewhat likely. In turn, those who say electing a woman president is less important to them are more skeptical it will happen.
