Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition

How we did this

Pew Research Center conducted this study to better understand which voters cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election and how they voted. We also wanted to compare how turnout and vote choices differed from previous elections in 2020 and 2016. Measuring turnout among different groups in the electorate is challenging; it is particularly difficult to assess changes in turnout from election to election.

Panel-based survey data provides us a unique opportunity to study elections. By surveying the same people over time and measuring their choice among the candidates (for both voters and nonvoters), we can more clearly see how differences in who stays home – and who turns out to vote – affect each election. We can also measure how adults’ partisan voting preferences change (or do not change) between elections.

For this study, we surveyed U.S. adults on our nationally representative American Trends Panel (ATP). We verified their turnout using commercial voter files that aggregate publicly available official state turnout records. The first analysis of validated voters was completed after the 2016 election. Turnout was validated for subsequent elections in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. Each state and the District of Columbia compiles these publicly available turnout records as part of their routine election administration.

To validate 2024 election turnout, we attempted to match adult citizens who are part of the ATP to a turnout record in at least one of three commercial voter files: one that serves conservative and Republican organizations and campaigns, one that serves progressive and Democratic organizations and campaigns, and one that is nonpartisan.

A member of the ATP is considered a validated voter for a given election if they:

• Told us they voted, and
• Were recorded as having voted in at least one of the three commercial voter files.

Those who said they did not vote in an election are considered nonvoters. Nonvoters also include anyone – regardless of their self-reported vote – for whom we could not locate a voting record in any of the three commercial voter files. Those who could not be matched were also considered nonvoters. Overall, 94% of panelists who we attempted to match were successfully matched to at least one of the three voter files.

The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other factors. For benchmarks of partisan affiliation within racial and ethnic categories, we used estimates produced by the Center’s 2023-24 Religious Landscape Study of more than 36,000 adults. In addition, this survey is weighted to benchmarks for voter turnout and presidential vote preference.

Here are the questions used for this report. Additional information about the voter file matching and verification process, as well as sample sizes for all elections reflected in the validated voter variables, can be found in the methodology section of this report.

Terminology

Validated voters: Adult citizens who told us in a postelection survey that they voted in a given general election and have a record of voting in a commercial voter file.

Voting-eligible: In this report, any U.S. adult citizen in the American Trends Panel is considered “eligible” to vote. In some states, criminal records disqualify adult citizens from voting in elections. This study does not attempt to identify such individuals if they are in the panel. In addition, eligible voters living abroad are not included in the panel. 

New and returning voters: Validated voters who turned out in the 2024 election, but not in the 2020 election. This includes both those who were old enough to vote in 2020, but did not, and voters who were too young to vote in 2020, but were 18 years of age or older in 2024 and cast a ballot.   

Turnout: Refers to “turning out” to vote, or simply “voting.” Also used to refer to the share of eligible adults who voted in a given election (e.g., “The turnout in 2024 among the voting-eligible population in the U.S. was 64%”).

Differential partisan turnout: Refers to the difference in turnout between supporters of different parties (e.g., “More 2020 Trump voters than 2020 Biden voters turned out in 2024”). 

Defectors/Defection: People who switched their vote to a different party’s candidate from one election to the next. Also referred to as “vote switching.”

Drop off/Drop-off voters: Voters who turn out in a given election but not in a subsequent one are said to have “dropped off” and are sometimes referred to as “drop-off voters.”

Nonvoters: Voting-eligible adults who did not vote in the 2024 election (or whichever election is specified).  

American Trends Panel: Pew Research Center’s probability survey panel, which consists of nearly 10,000 adults who take two to three surveys each month online or by telephone. Some panelists have been participating in surveys since 2014.

Voter file: A list of adults that includes information such as whether a person is registered to vote, which elections they have voted in, whether they voted in person or by mail, and additional data. Voter files do not record who a voter cast a ballot for. Federal law requires states to maintain electronic voter files. Many businesses assemble these files to create a nationwide list of adults along with their voter information.

Panel survey: A type of survey that relies on a group of people who have agreed to participate in multiple surveys, either indefinitely or over a specific time period. Panel surveys make it possible to observe how individuals change over time because the answers they give to questions in a current survey can be compared with their answers from a previous survey.

In his third run for president in 2024, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 1.5 percentage points overall, winning 312 Electoral College votes and the national popular vote for the first time.

Trump won with a voter coalition that was more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2020 or 2016, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the 2024 electorate.

• Among Hispanic voters, Trump battled to near parity in 2024 (51% Harris, 48% Trump) after losing to Joe Biden 61%-36% in 2020.
• Trump won 15% of Black voters – up from 8% four years earlier. 
• Trump also did better among Asian voters. While a majority of Asian voters (57%) backed Harris, 40% supported Trump. This was a narrower margin than Biden’s in 2020 (70% to 30%).

These shifts were largely the result of differences in which voters turned out in the 2020 and 2024 elections. As in the past, a relatively small share of voters switched which party’s candidate they supported.

In 2024, Trump benefited from higher turnout among those who voted for him in 2020. He also held an edge over Harris among voters who did not vote four years earlier – a group that was considerably more diverse than those who voted in both elections.

And while Trump improved his performance among several groups in 2024, many of the demographic patterns in voting preferences that have dominated American politics for the last several decades remained evident last November:

Educational divide. In each of his campaigns, Trump has held an edge among voters without four-year college degrees. But his 14-point advantage among noncollege voters (56% to 42%) was double his margin in 2016. Harris won voters with college degrees by 57% to 41%, but that was smaller than Biden’s lead among this group in 2020.

A wider urban-rural gap. Trump won voters living in rural areas by 40 points (69%-29%), which was higher than his margins in 2020 or 2016. Harris’ advantage among voters living in urban areas was nearly as large (65% voted for Harris, 33% Trump).

Continued differences by religious attendance. Nearly two-thirds of voters who attend religious services monthly or more (64%) voted for Trump, while only about a third (34%) supported Harris. Harris held a narrower advantage (56%-43%) among the larger group of voters who attend services less frequently.

For more on voting patterns, refer to Chapter 2.

From Biden 2020 to Trump 2024: A tale of differential turnout and changing voter preferences

While most of those who voted in 2020 cast ballots again in 2024, a larger share of Trump’s voters (89%) than Biden’s (85%) turned out.

And a larger share of those who did not turn out in 2020 – but did in 2024 – supported Trump (54%) than Harris (42%).

What 2020 voters did

Between 2020 and 2024, 85% of those who backed Trump in 2020 did so again in 2024. About one-in-ten of his 2020 voters (11%) didn’t turn out in 2024, and 4% voted for Harris or someone else. 

Harris received 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters. Compared with Trump’s 2020 voters, a larger share of Biden’s didn’t vote in 2024 (15%), and 6% voted for Trump or another candidate.

What new and returning voters did

Most adults who were eligible to vote in 2020 – but declined to do so – stayed home again in 2024. But among those who did turn out, Trump had the edge. Among all 2020 nonvoters (including those who were too young and ineligible to vote in 2020), 14% supported Trump in 2024 while 12% supported Harris.

Stability and change

Roughly three-quarters of eligible adults did the same thing in 2024 as they did in 2020: voted for a candidate of the same party or did not turn out.

And about a quarter of eligible adults did something different in 2024 than in 2020: They switched their vote choice, voted in 2024 when they had not voted in 2020, or did not vote in 2024 after voting in 2020.

For a more detailed visual tour of change and stability in the electorate, explore “How Changes in Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump’s Victory in 2024.”

Harris would not necessarily have benefited from higher voter turnout

When asked how they would have voted, people eligible to vote who did not do so were fairly evenly split in their preferences: 44% say they would have supported Trump, while 40% say they would have backed Harris.

This is a stark contrast to 2020, when those who didn’t vote expressed a clear preference for Biden over Trump (46% to 35%). Democrats have held an edge among nonvoters in prior elections dating back to at least the 1960s – though there is some evidence this advantage had declined in recent elections.  

As a result, if all Americans eligible to vote in 2024 had cast ballots, the overall margin in the popular vote likely would not have been much different.

In contrast, if all eligible Americans had voted in 2020, Biden’s margin of victory would likely have increased.

Other key findings

Naturalized citizens – immigrants who hold U.S. citizenship – who voted in the election split their votes about evenly, with 51% voting for Harris and 47% for Trump. In 2020, naturalized citizens favored Biden by 21 percentage points: 59% to 38%. In 2024, naturalized citizens made up 9% of voters.

Trump made gains among men – especially men under 50. Men favored Trump by 12 points (55%-43%) after being closely divided in 2020. In particular, men under 50 split their votes fairly evenly this year (49% Trump, 48% Harris). In 2020, this group backed Biden by 10 points (53% Biden, 43% Trump).

Even in an era of high-turnout elections, many eligible Americans remain on the sidelines. The 64% turnout rate in 2024 was the second highest since 1960, behind only 2020. However, about a quarter of Americans eligible to vote (26%) have no record of voting in any of the last three national elections (2020, 2022, 2024). These Americans are disproportionately young and much less likely to have four-year college degrees than those who vote more frequently.  

For more on voter turnout, refer to Chapter 1.

In-person early voting has grown in popularity. Nearly a third of 2024 voters (32%) cast their ballot in person prior to Election Day, up from 27% in 2020. Another 34% cast their ballot in person on Election Day.