Does public opinion polling about issues still work?
National polls like the Center’s come within a few percentage points, on average, of benchmarks from high response rate federal surveys.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
National polls like the Center’s come within a few percentage points, on average, of benchmarks from high response rate federal surveys.
Public polling estimates on COVID-19 vaccination have been within about 2.8 points, on average, of the CDC’s calculated rate.
A new evaluation of the Center’s national American Trends Panel finds little evidence that panel estimates are affected by errors associated with panel conditioning, a phenomenon that occurs when survey participation changes respondents’ true or reported behavior over time.
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
If a battleground state poll does not adjust for having too many college graduates, it is at risk of overstating support for a Democratic presidential candidate. The Current Population Survey provides high-quality data that can mitigate overrepresentation of college graduates.
While the growth of online interviewing is a prominent trend in polling, there is variation within that trend in how researchers recruit respondents. This study finds that sourcing affects data quality.
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ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts.
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