Does public opinion polling about issues still work?
National polls like the Center’s come within a few percentage points, on average, of benchmarks from high response rate federal surveys.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
Nick Hatley
Former Research Analyst
Nick Hatley is a former research analyst focusing on survey methology.
Publications
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Polls on COVID-19 vaccination closely align with CDC data
Public polling estimates on COVID-19 vaccination have been within about 2.8 points, on average, of the CDC’s calculated rate.
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report
Measuring the Risks of Panel Conditioning in Survey Research
A new evaluation of the Center’s national American Trends Panel finds little evidence that panel estimates are affected by errors associated with panel conditioning, a phenomenon that occurs when survey participation changes respondents’ true or reported behavior over time.
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Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
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What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
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A Resource for State Preelection Polling
If a battleground state poll does not adjust for having too many college graduates, it is at risk of overstating support for a Democratic presidential candidate. The Current Population Survey provides high-quality data that can mitigate overrepresentation of college graduates.
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Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents
While the growth of online interviewing is a prominent trend in polling, there is variation within that trend in how researchers recruit respondents. This study finds that sourcing affects data quality.
