Public Opinion Polling Basics
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Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
Methodological Research
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Methodological Research
Publications
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Evaluating Online Nonprobability Surveys
Online nonprobability surveys are fast, cheap, and increasingly popular. We compared nine samples and found that accuracy varied substantially.
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From multiracial children to gender identity, what some demographers are studying now
The nation’s largest annual demography conference, the Population Association of America meeting, featured new research on topics including couples who live in separate homes, children of multiracial couples, transgender Americans, immigration law enforcement and how climate change affects migration.
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Many Americans say they voted, but did they?
One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.
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Data Quality Deserves an Honest Discussion
While the possibility of falsified data is an important consideration in survey research, a new tool to detect it fails to perform as advertised.
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For 2020, Census Bureau plans to trade paper responses for digital ones
The 2020 census could be the first in which most Americans are counted over the internet.
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Evaluating a New Proposal for Detecting Data Falsification in Surveys
The claim by Kuriakose and Robbins (2015) that there is widespread falsification in international surveys is clearly concerning. However, an extensive investigation conducted by Pew Research Center finds the claim is not well supported.
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Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
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Pew Research Center will call 75% cellphones for surveys in 2016
We’re making this change to ensure our survey samples properly represent the now roughly half (47%) of U.S. adults who only have a cellphone.
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As more money flows into campaigns, Americans worry about its influence
There’s more money in the political system than at any time since the reforms of the 1970s, a trend that concerns most Americans regardless of party or ideology.
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How Pew Research Center studied the Washington press corps
Jesse Holcomb, associate director of research at the Center, explains how the new report was put together.
Signature Reports
A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition
While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election.
Comparing Two Types of Online Survey Samples
Pew Research Center conducted a study to compare the accuracy of six online surveys of U.S. adults – three from probability-based panels and three from opt-in sources. On average, the absolute error on opt-in samples was about twice that of probability-based panels.
Q&A: What is the American Trends Panel, and how has it changed?
Members of the American Trends Panel can now take our surveys online or over the phone with an interviewer.
How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century
A new study found that 61% of national pollsters used different methods in 2022 than in 2016. And last year, 17% of pollsters used multiple methods to sample or interview people – up from 2% in 2016.
