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    Methodology

    Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2022 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016, 2018 and 2020. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the four general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate publicly available official state turnout records. […]

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    3. Demographic profiles of Republican and Democratic voters

    Many of the prominent demographic differences that have defined the two parties’ voting coalitions in recent years persisted in the 2022 elections. Democratic voters were once again, on average, younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and more likely to possess college degrees than Republican voters. Those who voted for a Democratic candidate for the U.S. […]

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    1. Assessing the accuracy of estimates for U.S. adults

    To gauge each sample’s accuracy on general population estimates for all U.S. adults, we calculated the weighted percentage of adults belonging to 77 categories across 28 different variables and compared them to corresponding benchmarks derived from high-quality government data sources. The benchmarks covered a variety of topics, including voting, health, and respondents’ work, family and […]

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    Comparing Two Types of Online Survey Samples

    Pew Research Center conducted a study to compare the accuracy of six online surveys of U.S. adults – three from probability-based panels and three from opt-in sources. On average, the absolute error on opt-in samples was about twice that of probability-based panels.

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    Public Has Modest Expectations for Washington’s Return to Divided Government

    Most U.S. adults say President Joe Biden (65%) and Republican leaders in Congress (61%) will be unsuccessful getting their agendas enacted in the next two years; only about a third say the president and GOP leaders will be successful. Republicans are less confident than Democrats in midterm vote counts – but more confident than they were after the 2020 election.

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    2. Assessing the accuracy of estimates among demographic subgroups

    The accuracy of general population estimates is only one facet of data quality for online samples. Frequently, survey researchers also want to understand the similarities and differences between subgroups within the population. For probability-based panels recruited using ABS, obtaining a sufficiently large sample of respondents belonging to small subgroups can be particularly costly, and one […]

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