Introduction and Summary
After two presidential debates and six weeks of the general campaign Bill Clinton’s lead over Bob Dole is as large as it was in early September. The course of the race has changed little with the passing of each important campaign milestone. The only observable consequence of the debates is that the percentage of voters who say they might switch to Bob Dole is lower than it was just prior to the first debate (11% vs. 16%). The Pew voter typology, which divides the electorate by core values, finds Dole unable to forge a coalition of staunch conservatives, moderates and populists.
The unchanged standings also reflect the breadth of the Clinton coalition. The President is getting strong support from the left, right and center of his own party and has won over working class Independents who had big doubts about him as recently as a year ago.
In stark contrast, Dole has not only failed to attract Independents, but he has been unable to rally key Republican segments. His support is weak among economically squeezed populist conservatives. He has also turned off moderate economic conservatives, with whom Bill Clinton has made inroads. Dole only gets overwhelming support from Republicans who are both economically and socially conservative.
The Pew Research Center’s voter classification system (typology) categorizes voters based on their political values, party affiliation, and political participation into ten groups — four Democratic, three Independent and three Republican. In the summer of 1994 when voter support was about equally divided between Clinton (39%) and Dole (36%), and when Perot had a larger following (20%), moderate Democratic groups were not enthusiastic about the President.1–>
