Pew Research Center’s Exit Poll Analysis on the 2012 Election
Pew Research Center analyzes the electorate, voter turnout and the issues that affected President Obama’s reelection win in 2012.
Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think
A sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. They will affect the outcome of the presidential election by their absence. Who are they?
Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge
As the presidential campaign enters its final week, the race is even among likely voters: 47% favor Barack Obama and the same percentage supports Mitt Romney. While Romney holds a turnout advantage, Obama leads on many personal characteristics and issues.
Catholic and Unaffiliated Latinos Support Obama; Evangelicals Divided
Three-quarters of Latino Catholics and eight-in-ten religiously unaffiliated Latinos support President Barack Obama’s re-election, while just 50% of Latino evangelical Protestants prefer Obama and 39% support Mitt Romney.
Latino Voters Support Obama by 3-1 Ratio, But Are Less Certain than Others about Voting
Latino registered voters prefer President Obama over Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 69% to 21%; express growing satisfaction with the direction of the nation and the state of their personal finances; but are somewhat less certain than non-Hispanics that they will vote in this election.
The Catholic “Swing” Vote
Catholics are often identified as a major “swing” voting group in American politics. A new analysis shows that the only group of Catholics that has been divided in recent elections is white Catholics who identify as political moderates
With Strong Debate Performance, Romney Erases Obama’s Lead
Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in Pew Research Center polling. Voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate. Romney is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and most issues than he was in September.
Youth Engagement Falls; Registration Also Declines
Young voters are significantly less engaged in this year’s election than at a comparable point in 2008 and now lag far behind older voters in interest in the campaign and intention to vote.
Fewer Satisfied with Candidates than in Any Campaign Since 1992
Voters offer tepid ratings of the 2012 field. Just over half (54%) say they are either very or fairly satisfied with the presidential choices this year, while 40% say they are not too or not at all satisfied.
Obama Ahead with Stronger Support, Better Image and Lead on Most Issues
With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Barack Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.