The Impact of “Cell-Onlys” on Public Opinion Polls
A new Pew study finds that on key political measures such as presidential approval, Iraq policy, presidential primary voter preference and party affiliation, respondents reached on cell phones hold attitudes very similar to those reached on landline telephones.
The South Carolina Democratic Primary in Black and White
This time, the pre-election polls understated Barack Obama’s support among both white and black voters.
Nearly lost in the blizzard of recent poll reports were the findings of a Gallup survey that the current GOP frontrunner, John McCain, might well give each of the two Democratic frontrunners a run for their money.
Election-Year Economic Ratings Lowest Since ’92
Republicans and Democrats agree the economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress, but they differ more than ever on the importance of other domestic issues — such as global warming and health insurance for the uninsured.
Will Evangelical Voters Rally Around a Single Candidate in 2008?
As voting patterns and preferences among evangelicals have become more fluid, their electoral impact may extend beyond the primaries and affect both parties in November. Two experts from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life discuss this critical voting bloc.
Mind the Gender Gap
Does Hilary Clinton have a problem with male voters or does Barack Obama simply appeal more to men?
In GOP Primaries: Three Victors, Three Constituencies
The Republican nomination contest is being increasingly shaped by ideology and religion, while the dynamics of the Democratic race are more heavily influenced by class, race and gender.
The GOP’s Unanswered Question
Thursday night’s Republican debate in South Carolina in the wake of John McCain’s comeback victory in New Hampshire and Mike Huckabee’s surprising win in Iowa raised more questions than it answered.
New Hampshire Teaches News Media a Lesson
It wasn’t quite “Dewey Defeats Truman,” but after the Jan. 8 Granite State primary confounded many pollsters and pundits, a key story in coverage of the McCain and Clinton victories was the media’s proclivity to predict and pre-analyze the results.
Getting It Wrong
Several factors deserve exploration, but one should not ignore the possibility of the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.