Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really
Synthetic surveys using digital twins do a poor job estimating the public mood and are especially error-prone for some subgroups, including Republicans and Black adults.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
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Q&A: After misses in 2016 and 2020, does polling need to be fixed again? What our survey experts say
Polling organizations have taken close looks at how election surveys are designed, administered and analyzed. We are no exception.
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The impact of survey mode on measuring public opinion in Italy
Using a “bridge survey,” we simultaneously fielded identical questions and response options via both in-person and telephone interviews.
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With fewer state governments divided by party than in years past, GOP has edge in redistricting
When legislatures get the data to draw new congressional maps, Republicans will drive that process in 20 states, versus 11 for Democrats.
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What different survey modes and question types can tell us about Americans’ views of China
Regardless of mode or measure, most Americans have a negative view of China – and opinions have become more unfavorable in recent years.
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What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
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Contending with the 80/20 rule when studying online behavior
The Pareto principle, or “80/20 rule,” holds that in many systems, a minority of cases produce the majority of outcomes.
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Assessing the consistency of online opt-in polls
In this post, we examine whether online opt-in or “nonprobability” surveys are consistent in the same ways as probability-based surveys.
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How we know the drop in Trump’s approval rating in January reflected a real shift in public opinion
The 9-point fall in approval was the largest change between two Pew Research Center polls since Donald Trump took office.
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Measuring Religion in Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel
Since the establishment of the ATP, the Center has gradually migrated away from telephone polling and toward online survey administration, and since early 2019, the Center has conducted most of its U.S. polling on the ATP. This shift has major implications for the way the Center measures trends in American religion – including those from the Center’s flagship Religious Landscape Studies, which were conducted by phone in 2007 and 2014.
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How quantitative methods can supplement a qualitative approach when working with focus groups
In a recent project involving focus groups, we tested out quantitative as well as qualitative research methods.
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A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition
While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election.
Comparing Two Types of Online Survey Samples
Pew Research Center conducted a study to compare the accuracy of six online surveys of U.S. adults – three from probability-based panels and three from opt-in sources. On average, the absolute error on opt-in samples was about twice that of probability-based panels.
Q&A: What is the American Trends Panel, and how has it changed?
Members of the American Trends Panel can now take our surveys online or over the phone with an interviewer.
How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century
A new study found that 61% of national pollsters used different methods in 2022 than in 2016. And last year, 17% of pollsters used multiple methods to sample or interview people – up from 2% in 2016.
