Levels of engagement and enthusiasm in the political bases are particularly important factors in 2012, given how few voters are open to persuasion. Nearly eight-in-ten registered voters say they have made up their minds about who to vote for this year with “no chance” they will change. Just 21% say they are undecided about their vote choice or that they may change their mind before Election Day.

The relatively small size of the “swing” vote is typical of elections that involve incumbent presidents; in June of 2004, 21% of voters also were swing voters. By comparison, in both 2000 and 2008, about a third of voters were identified as swing voters.

The swing vote comprises three groups: the 9% of voters who either just lean to Obama in their vote preference (3%) or support Obama but say there is a chance they might vote for Romney (6%), the 7% of voters who either just lean to Romney in their vote preference (3%) or support Romney but say there is a chance they might vote for Obama (5%), and the 5% of voters who say they have no preference between the two candidates at all. Read More