The analysis presented here suggests that modeling the electorate is likely to continue to vex pollsters, especially if no official record of past voting is available as an input to the models. As if to affirm this somewhat pessimistic conclusion, polls have failed to accurately predict winning candidates in several recent elections, including the 2015 […]
In the 2016 presidential race, registered voters remain skeptical about how each of the candidates would fare as president. No more than 36% say any of the remaining five candidates would be a good or great president, and in the case of three of the candidates (Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump), more voters […]
The 2016 presidential campaign continues to attract strong interest, even as the primary process draws widespread criticism. Most registered voters do not think the presidential primaries have been a good way of determining the best-qualified nominees. This is in line with opinions in recent campaigns, but two decades ago voters had a more positive view […]
Questions on the state of the U.S. economic system, free trade and the role of government – both generally and in specific areas such as health care – surface differences within both political parties. On the Republican side, supporters of Donald Trump stand out for their unfavorable views of free trade, negative assessments of national […]
