Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
The items used in the so-called Perry-Gallup scale – originally developed in the 1950s and ’60s by election polling pioneer Paul Perry of Gallup and used in various combinations and with some alterations by the Pew Research Center, Gallup and other organizations in their pre-election polling (Perry 1960, 1979) – are widely employed by survey […]
When it comes to climate change, publics around the world generally adopt the precautionary principle: Even when in doubt, act out of prudence. In 37 of 40 nations surveyed, willingness to curb emissions that may contribute to warming the planet exceeds intense concern about climate change. Globally, a median of 54% consider climate change to […]
Standard lists of history’s most influential religious leaders – among them Abraham, Moses, Jesus, Muhammad, Siddhartha Gautama (the Buddha) – tend to be predominantly, if not exclusively, male. Many religious groups, including Roman Catholics and Orthodox Jews, allow only men to be clergy, while others, including some denominations in the evangelical Protestant tradition, have lifted that restriction only in recent decades. Yet it often appears that the ranks of the faithful are dominated by women.
The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults living in households. Respondents who self-identify as internet users (representing 89% of U.S. adults) participate in the panel via monthly self-administered web surveys, and those who do not use the internet participate via telephone or […]
Survey Report Next week, Republican voters will begin the process of selecting their party’s 2016 presidential nominee. One of the major questions will be which GOP voters turn out, and which stay home. A person’s past voting history can be a powerful predictor of future turnout. A new analysis of the Republican electorate in 2012, […]