Giuliani Generates the Most Enthusiasm
Where do white evangelical Protestants stand with regard to the announced and potential Republican presidential candidates? A June survey from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press sheds light on this question at this stage of the campaign by measuring name recognition and likelihood of support at the polls. (View a complete discussion of the survey findings and more details on the survey methodology.)
Name Recognition. Among white evangelicals, 93% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters claim to have heard of Sen. John McCain. Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich* follow closely behind at 89% each. Mitt Romney is known by 68% of white evangelicals, and Fred Thompson* is familiar to 52%.
Other Republican candidates and potential candidates are less well-known; among all Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, 51% report having heard of Tommy Thompson, 48% of Mike Huckabee, 43% of Chuck Hagel* and 40% of Sam Brownback.
Likely Support. Among evangelical, Republican registered voters, Giuliani currently generates the most enthusiasm (albeit somewhat less than among Republican registered voters overall), with nearly one-in-three (32%) saying there is a “good chance” they would vote for him and an additional 35% saying there is “some chance.” Only 18% say there is “no chance” Giuliani would get their vote. In contrast, about one-sixth of evangelical Republicans (16%) say there is a “good chance” they would vote for McCain, and an additional 40% say there is “some chance” they would vote for him; 26% say there is “no chance” they would vote for McCain.
Nearly half of evangelicals say there is a chance they would vote for Gingrich (19% “good chance,” 27% “some chance”), but one-in-three say there is “no chance” they would vote for him. Roughly one-in-three evangelical Republicans are potential Romney supporters (14% “good chance,” 23% “some chance”), while 24% say there is “no chance” Romney would get their vote.
Despite being significantly less well-known than many of the other candidates, Fred Thompson generates as much enthusiasm among evangelical Republicans as do McCain, Gingrich or Romney (20% say there is a “good chance” they would vote for Thompson, while just 7% say there is “no chance” they would vote for him).
* Not an announced candidate as of June 4, 2007.