by Pamela M. Prah, Stateline.org Staff Writer
The tax hikes that so many states levied to plug holes in their recession-ravaged budgets this year could endanger a few incumbent governors’ careers in 2010 when 37 gubernatorial contests are at stake.
The Nov. 3 defeat of one-term New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), who signed nearly $1 billion in tax increases this year after pledging earlier to cut property taxes, could be a bellwether. Experts caution against reading too much into one race. But a look back at the last big gubernatorial election year to fall in the midst of a state budget crisis — in 2002 — showed voters were in a mood for change.
Four sitting governors were ousted in 2002, and party control flipped in 18 of the 36 governor’s seats on the ballot. The GOP lost the governor’s mansion in 10 states, while the Democrats lost in eight. Two open seats held by independents went in 2002 to a Democrat and a Republican. Turnabouts occurred even where the incumbent’s party traditionally had been strong, including Georgia, Kansas, Maryland and Tennessee. The handling of the economic downturn was a major factor in many of the 2002 races.
“Being governor may be the worst job in American politics right now just because of the budgets and the financial pressure that states are under,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor who tracks governor’s races for The Cook Political Report. The nonpartisan publication ranks 14 governor’s races in 2010 as tossups and lists four open Democratic seats at risk of switching to GOP hands.
This recession is deeper and longer and threatens to hit states far harder than the one in 2002. States already have closed more than $270 billion in budget gaps between projected spending and revenues since the recession started in December 2007 — already surpassing the $263.8 billion in red ink states erased from fiscal 2002 to fiscal 2006 following the 2001 recession, according to figures from the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Sitting governors in hard-hit Arizona, Nevada and New York are rated tossups on one or more of the lists, and open seats in California, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee are prime takeover opportunities. Of the 37 governors’ spots on the 2010 ballot, Democrats hold 19 and the GOP 18. All but a handful of the races are expected to be nail-biters, but 2010 provides at least one certainty: Nearly half the country will get a new governor because of term limits and retirements.
Read the full analysis, including an interactive map showing the 2010 gubernatorial elections, and rankings by Congressional Quarterly Politics, Cook Political Report and Rothenberg Political Report at stateline.org.
