High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
President Obama’s approval rating has barely moved in over a year and remains at 43%. In fact, the share of Americans approving of Obama has wavered between 41% and 45% in 13 consecutive Pew Research surveys dating back to September 2013.
The public has mixed reactions to the GOP’s big midterm win: 48% say they are happy about the election outcome and as many approve as disapprove of Republican plans for the future. In addition, the public is divided over whether Obama or GOP leaders should take the lead solving problems.
Would Latinos turn out to vote in greater numbers this year? Would the lack of action on immigration reform by President Obama and Congress depress voter turnout, or raise it? Here are five takeaways about Latino voters in this year’s midterm elections.
Democrats maintained a large edge among Latinos voting in the midterm elections, but in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote.
Exit poll data from the 2014 midterm elections finds the GOP making inroads among some religious constituencies that traditionally have not been as supportive of Republican candidates.
The overall vote share is similar to the 2010 midterm elections, and many of the key demographic divides in 2010 — particularly wide gender and age gaps — remain.
The two primary sources that provide insight into voter demographics use different methodologies, are released at different times, and often produce slightly different results.
If history is any guide, well under half of eligible voters will come out to vote in Tuesday's midterms.
Six facts about the 2014 electorate culled from Pew Research surveys and analyses during this midterm year.