Why measuring the demographics of voters on Election Day is difficult
The two primary sources that provide insight into voter demographics use different methodologies, are released at different times, and often produce slightly different results.
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The Party of Nonvoters
Survey Report With just four days before the midterm elections, the spotlight understandably is focused on the estimated 40% of voting age adults who are expected to show up at the polls next Tuesday. There has been less attention on the much larger share who most probably will not. As in past elections, nonvoters [1. […]
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Registered voters, likely voters, turnout rates: What does it all mean to 2014 election forecasts?
How many Americans are likely to vote, and which voters in the survey are the likely voters? Important as these questions are, there is almost no consensus among the pollsters as to how to identify each of these groups.
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Fewer Voters Report Getting Robo-Calls, Campaign Ads Still Pervasive
Survey Report Voters are reporting roughly similar levels of contact from political campaigns and groups as four years ago, with one notable exception. The share of voters who say they have received a phone call about the election has fallen 12 points since mid-October 2010, from 59% to 47%. This decline has been driven by […]
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Latino Voters and the 2014 Midterm Elections
A record 25.2 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2014 midterms, or 11% of eligible voters nationwide. But in many states with close races this year, Latinos make up a smaller share of eligible voters.
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Latino vote is small in nearly all states with hot Senate races
President Obama has delayed any executive action on immigration policy until after this year’s midterm elections. The president noted that part of the reason for this decision was to “make sure we get it right.” Meanwhile several analysts have said that any executive action might energize conservatives and jeopardize the Senate’s Democratic majority given the […]
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Hispanics split on how to address surge in Central American child migrants
About as many Hispanics support the current system for deciding immigration cases as do those expediting the process (49% – 47%), which would have the effect of speeding up deportations.
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Voter turnout always drops off for midterm elections, but why?
Voter turnout, no matter how measured, is consistently lower in midterm elections compared to presidential election years. Political scientists aren’t sure why, but have some ideas.
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GOP Has Midterm Engagement Advantage
The Republican Party holds a clear advantage in voter engagement in this fall’s midterm elections, according to a new national survey by the Pew Research Center. Yet GOP voters are not as enthused and engaged as they were at this point in the midterm campaign four years ago, prior to the Republican Party winning control […]
