Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
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Debates Help Fuel Strong Interest in 2016 Campaign
Survey Report As candidates in both parties prepare for the next round of presidential debates, a new national survey finds that the public is highly engaged by the 2016 campaign. Fully 74% of Americans say they have given a lot or some thought to the candidates, higher than the shares saying this at comparable points […]
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Supreme Court could reshape voting districts, with big impact on Hispanics
How the Supreme Court decides a redistricting case from Texas could affect Hispanic voting strength and House representation from coast to coast.
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States suing Obama over immigration programs are home to 46% of those who may qualify
A group of 26 states filed a lawsuit in December to stop his executive actions on immigration, arguing that he didn’t have the authority to make the changes.
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U.S. border apprehensions of Mexicans fall to historic lows
For the first time on record, more non-Mexicans than Mexicans were apprehended at U.S. borders in 2014 by the Customs and Border Patrol.
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As Cuban American demographics change, so do views of Cuba
President Obama’s change in policy towards Cuba comes as the Cuban American population itself is changing—in its demographics, views of U.S.-Cuba policy, and its politics.
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With fewer new arrivals, Census lowers Hispanic population projections
A new Census Bureau projection for growth in the Hispanic population projection by 2050 is lower—by nearly 30 million—than earlier population projections published by the bureau.
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5 takeaways about the 2014 Latino vote
Would Latinos turn out to vote in greater numbers this year? Would the lack of action on immigration reform by President Obama and Congress depress voter turnout, or raise it? Here are five takeaways about Latino voters in this year’s midterm elections.
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Hispanic Voters in the 2014 Election
Democrats maintained a large edge among Latinos voting in the midterm elections, but in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote.
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Why measuring the demographics of voters on Election Day is difficult
The two primary sources that provide insight into voter demographics use different methodologies, are released at different times, and often produce slightly different results.
