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Public Opinion Polling Basics

By the end of our free, five-lesson course, you will know why we have polls, what the different kinds of polls are, how polling works and what you should look for in a poll.

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Methodological Research

Publications

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    The Impact Of “Cell-Onlys” On Public Opinion Polling

    Summary of Findings The proportion of Americans who rely solely on a cell phone for their telephone service continues to grow, as does the share who still have a landline phone but do most of their calling on their cell phone. With these changes, there is an increased concern that polls conducted only on landline […]

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    What’s Missing from National RDD Surveys? The Impact of the Growing Cell-Only Population

    The number of cell-phone-only households has continued to grow — 12.8% of all households by the end of 2006, according to the National Health Interview Survey. While the noncoverage problem is currently not damaging estimates for the entire population, a study finds evidence that it does create biased estimates on certain variables for young adults, 25% of whom are cell-only.

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    How Serious Is Polling’s Cell-Only Problem?

    The landline-less are different from regular telephone users in many of their opinions and their numbers are growing fast. Can survey researchers meet this challenge?

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    How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?

    As the number of declared presidential candidates grows, followers of early poll readings should bear in mind some caveats. Early frontrunners for the Republican nomination in most of the past seven open contests have gone on to win the nomination, but this year there are two GOP frontrunners instead of one clear leader. On the Democratic side, even when there is a clear frontrunner as there is this year with Sen. Hillary Clinton, the early polls have been less reliable in predicting who will capture the nomination.

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    Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?

    National elections are the high season for pollsters and with Election Day now less than two weeks away, new polls on the fight for Congress are being released nearly every day. Commonly, pollsters use something called the “generic ballot” to assess the state of the congressional race. Just how accurate is the “generic ballot” in predicting election results?

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    Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different

    Political pollsters continue to cast a wary eye on the growing number of Americans who use only a cell phone and have no landline. The Pew Research Center estimates that this group now constitutes one-in-ten adults. But three Pew surveys of cell-only Americans this year have found that their absence from landline surveys is not creating a measurable bias in the bottom-line findings.

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    Lenski on Exit Polls in the Coming Elections

    In an exclusive interview, Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research reflects on conducting his first election day survey following the death of his former partner, exit poll pioneer Warren Mitofsky. He also reveals steps that will be taken to avoid problems associated with the 2004 poll.

Signature Reports

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A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition

While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election.

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Comparing Two Types of Online Survey Samples

Pew Research Center conducted a study to compare the accuracy of six online surveys of U.S. adults – three from probability-based panels and three from opt-in sources. On average, the absolute error on opt-in samples was about twice that of probability-based panels.

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How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century

A new study found that 61% of national pollsters used different methods in 2022 than in 2016. And last year, 17% of pollsters used multiple methods to sample or interview people – up from 2% in 2016.

Features