2016 electorate will be the most diverse in U.S. history
Nearly one-in-three eligible voters on Election Day (31%) will be Hispanic, black, Asian or another racial or ethnic minority.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
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The Gender Gap in Religion Around the World
Standard lists of history’s most influential religious leaders – among them Abraham, Moses, Jesus, Muhammad, Siddhartha Gautama (the Buddha) – tend to be predominantly, if not exclusively, male. Many religious groups, including Roman Catholics and Orthodox Jews, allow only men to be clergy, while others, including some denominations in the evangelical Protestant tradition, have lifted that restriction only in recent decades. Yet it often appears that the ranks of the faithful are dominated by women.
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2: Measuring the likelihood to vote
The survey literature has long shown that more respondents say they intend to vote than actually cast a ballot (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2001; Silver et al. 1986). In addition, some people say they do not expect to vote but actually do, perhaps because they are contacted by a campaign or a friend close to […]
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Appendix C: Sensitivity to the turnout forecast
The candidate preferences of voters and nonvoters in 2014 were very different. This fact makes cutoff methods very sensitive to the chosen turnout threshold. Using the Perry-Gallup method, the forecast margin ranges from a tie vote (47%-47%) with a more inclusive model (a turnout forecast of 60% of registered voters, 42% of the general public) […]
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Israel’s Religiously Divided Society
There are deep divisions in Israeli society over political values and religion’s role in public life — not only between Jews and the Arab minority, but also among the religious subgroups that make up Israeli Jewry.
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Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.