Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
We’re making this change to ensure our survey samples properly represent the now roughly half (47%) of U.S. adults who only have a cellphone.
Telephone surveys face numerous challenges, but some positive developments have emerged, principally with respect to sampling.
We've confirmed the identities of 36 members of the caucus, and they are among the most conservative and recently elected of Republican representatives.
With 89% of U.S. adults online, survey research is rapidly moving to the Web. But 89% is not 100%, and surveys that include only those who use the internet run the risk of producing biased results.
With response rates low and heading lower, how can survey researchers have confidence in their findings? Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, addresses this issue and related questions.
Respondents who take a Pew Research Center survey on a cellphone are currently offered reimbursement for their cellphone minutes for completing the survey. But is it still necessary in the age of unlimited talk and text?
With so many respondents taking Web surveys on smartphones, creating surveys with smartphone respondents in mind is critical.
We released our first report on American multiracial adults, a group that comprises an estimated 6.9% of the adult population, or nearly 17 million adults. The report looks at who they are demographically, their attitudes and experiences, and the spectrum of their racial identity.
The uneasy ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, punctuated by almost daily fighting between separatists and government forces, posed a major challenge to the Pew Research Center as we set about conducting a new public opinion survey in that country this past spring. As always, our first priority was the safety of interviewers and respondents, who can both be at risk when it comes to face-to-face surveys in a conflict zone.