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We often hear a candidate is leading, trailing, or the race is tied. This is based on “horse race” polling, which estimates how much support candidates have, based on how people answer surveys leading up to an election. But accurately measuring the horse race is wicked hard for a few reasons.
This report explains how political weighting works, how Pew Research Center does it, and some of its limitations.
How do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? A Pew Research Center survey methodologist answers these questions and more in six short, easy to read lessons.
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(Related post: Validating 2020 voters in Pew Research Center’s survey data)
In the wake of Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory, an overwhelming majority of those who said they had voted for him had “warm” feelings for him.
Many online surveys are conducted using “nonprobability” or “opt-in” samples, which are generally easier and cheaper to conduct. In our latest Methods 101 video, we explore some of the features of nonprobability surveys and how they differ from traditional probability-based polls.
Our latest Methods 101 video explores some of the ways these surveys differ from traditional probability-based polls.
For many people, “majority” is a word so common that they rarely have to think twice about what it means. But it’s a different matter for polling organizations like Pew Research Center. At the Center, writers cannot label a survey finding a “majority” unless it meets specific criteria.
Question 1: Measuring religious identity How does Pew Research Center measure the religious identity of survey respondents and the religious composition of the U.S.? Answer: Generally, we rely on respondents’ self-identification. A key question we ask in many surveys is: “What is your present religion, if any? Are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Orthodox such […]
Pew Research Center releases its survey data publicly as IBM SPSS files with the .sav extension. But if you don’t have access to SPSS, there are free, open-source tools available to analyze and make use of the data.
An introduction to the methodological musings, puzzles and tangles that you would see if you could flip those picture-perfect research products over.
Recent events – including the 2016 presidential election and Brexit – have rattled public confidence in polls. But this video explains why well-designed polls can still be trusted and remain an important way to measure public opinion.
Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 and the U.K. “Brexit” decision rattled public confidence in polls. Our new video explains why well-designed polls can be trusted.
