12th grade girls are less likely than boys to say they want to get married someday

U.S. high schoolers are less likely now than in the past to say they want to get married someday. And a smaller share today say that they’re very likely to have children if they do get married, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of survey data from the University of Michigan.

As of 2023, 67% of the nation’s 12th graders say they’ll likely choose to get married someday, down from 80% in 1993. Another 24% say they don’t know if they’ll get married, up from 16%. The share saying they don’t plan on getting married someday is largely unchanged.

About this research

This Pew Research Center analysis explores how 12th grade girls and boys view marriage and having children and how those views have changed over time.

Why did we do this?

Pew Research Center conducts high-quality research to inform the public, journalists and leaders. This analysis builds on a larger body of work that explores public views on marriage and family. 

Learn more about Pew Research Center and our research on family and relationships. 

How did we do this?

This analysis includes data from Monitoring the Future: A Continuing Study of American Youth, a project by the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research. The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is designed to explore changes in the key values, behaviors and lifestyle orientations of American youth. This analysis draws from the 1993 and 2023 MTF surveys. The 2023 survey allowed respondents to specify their sex as “Male,” “Female,” “Other” or “Prefer not to answer,” while the earlier survey only offered “Male” and “Female.” This analysis focuses on respondents who said their sex was male or female in order to compare views between 1993 and 2023.

The survey also asked 12th graders how likely they are to do certain things if they do get married.

A smaller share of 12th graders now than in 1993 say they’re very likely to stay married to the same person for life if they do tie the knot. About half (51%) say this, compared with 59% in 1993. The share of 12th graders who say they’re very likely to want to have kids in this situation has also decreased over this time span (48% in 2023 vs. 64% in 1993).

The drop in the share of 12th graders who say they want to get married reflects shifting views among girls. Boys are more likely than girls to say they want to get married someday (74% vs. 61%), but this wasn’t always the case. In 1993, a larger share of girls (83%) than boys (76%) said they wanted to get married.

The share of boys saying this is virtually unchanged over the 30-year period. But the share among girls dropped by 22 percentage points.

There are no statistically significant gender gaps on the other questions.

Related: Among young adults without children, men are more likely than women to say they want to be parents someday