Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
Center researchers developed a plan to retire a subset of panelists who are overrepresented both demographically and politically. In raw, unadjusted numbers, the ATP contains proportionately too many college graduates, registered voters and Democratic-leaning adults. This is neither intentional nor unique to the ATP; instead it stems from such adults being more amenable to taking […]
While large partisan gaps emerged in views of two dominant stories of last year – the COVID-19 pandemic and the presidential election – there also was one clear and consistent difference within a single party. As a whole, Republicans who turned to Donald Trump as a key source of news about these events had different […]
Despite scores of failed legal challenges, numerous recounts and Congress’ confirmation of Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory, a large majority of those who voted for Donald Trump incorrectly say their candidate received the most votes cast by eligible voters in enough states to win the election. Among Trump voters, 40% say he “definitely” won and […]
Unprecedented national news events, a sharp and sometimes hostile political divide, and polarized news streams created a ripe environment for misinformation and made-up news in 2020. The truth surrounding the two intense, yearlong storylines – the coronavirus pandemic and the presidential election – was often a matter of dispute, whether due to genuine confusion or […]