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    Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?

    National elections are the high season for pollsters and with Election Day now less than two weeks away, new polls on the fight for Congress are being released nearly every day. Commonly, pollsters use something called the “generic ballot” to assess the state of the congressional race. Just how accurate is the “generic ballot” in predicting election results?

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    About this Survey

    Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a nationwide sample of 2,006 adults, 18 years of age or older, from October 17-22, 2006. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling […]

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    Methodology

    Methodology The Universe To conduct a meaningful assessment of the national news media content available to the public on election night, we studied a wide range of media outlets and programs available during that time. Eight distinct categories of news outlets were studied: online aggregators, Newspaper Web sites, network news Web sites, blogs, political Web […]

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    Understanding Religion’s Role in the 2006 Election

    Key West, Florida Some of the nation’s leading journalists and distinguished scholars gathered in Key West, Fla., in December 2006 for the Pew Forum’s biannual Faith Angle Conference on religion, politics and public life. To help journalists better understand the role religion played in the 2006 midterm election, Pew Forum Senior Fellow John Green and […]

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    Bloggers Hit the Campaign Trail at What Cost?

    Many of those in the blogosphere see themselves as watchdogs arrayed against an insular political establishment dominated by consultants, interests groups, and the mainstream media. But with bloggers taking an increasingly active role in some of the key 2006 political races, are they sacrificing that independence to become part of the system they decry?

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    Which Polls Had it Right?

    The final tally from the mid-term election is in—you know the poll in which people actually vote—and the media polls can now be graded. With each election, there are more media outlets, and more polls. Usually, the polls begin to converge as election day nears. This year, the polls varied widely. How did they stack up against the actual vote?

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    Methodology

    In November of even numbered years, the Current Population Survey (CPS) asks citizens aged 18 whether they registered to vote and whether they voted. The data provide definitive information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the electorate. (The CPS is conducted by the Census Bureau and is best known as the source of monthly […]

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    Courting Religious Voters for the November Elections

    Experts Convened to Discuss Lessons Learned from 2004 As Democrats try to win back one or both houses of Congress this November, they are increasingly employing the language of faith and morality to frame the issues, hearkening back to the 2004 GOP campaign and its appeal to “values voters.” CONTACT Mary SchultzCommunications Manager202.419.4556mschultz@pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/religion That election […]

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    Appendix A: Data Source

    The enrollment tabulations are based on the U.S. Department of Education’s “Public Elementary/Secondary School Universe Survey” for school years 1993-94 and 2002-03. The latter year is the most recent available. Not all states report student enrollment by race/ethnicity. The number of states not reporting racial/ethnic counts increases in earlier school years. The 1993-94 school year […]

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    Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign’s Final Days

    Summary of Findings A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% […]