Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
Methods
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Q&A: After misses in 2016 and 2020, does polling need to be fixed again? What our survey experts say
Polling organizations have taken close looks at how election surveys are designed, administered and analyzed. We are no exception.
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What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
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Single-party control in Washington is common at the beginning of a new presidency, but tends not to last long
Unified government at the beginning of a president’s first term has been the norm, especially for Democratic presidents.
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Racial, ethnic diversity increases yet again with the 117th Congress
124 lawmakers today identify as Black, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander or Native American, a 97% increase over the 107th Congress of 2001-02.
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How we know the drop in Trump’s approval rating in January reflected a real shift in public opinion
The 9-point fall in approval was the largest change between two Pew Research Center polls since Donald Trump took office.
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Understanding how 2020 election polls performed and what it might mean for other kinds of survey work
Many who follow polls are asking how these errors could happen. Here, we’ll take a preliminary shot at answering that question.
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A voter data resource: Detailed demographic tables about verified voters in 2016, 2018
Data tables from interviews we conducted with verified voters after the 2016 and 2018 elections may help answer some election 2020 questions.
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What we can trust 2020 election polls to tell us
Polls can’t predict the future. But they are the best tool to reveal the public’s priorities and values, and why people vote the way they do.
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What the 2020 electorate looks like by party, race and ethnicity, age, education and religion
What does the 2020 electorate look like politically, demographically and religiously as the race enters its final days?
