Many Americans say they voted, but did they?
One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.
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So far, turnout in this year’s primaries rivals 2008 record
So far this year, Republican primaries are experiencing record turnouts, much as voting in Democratic primaries surged in 2008. But the longer-term trend in primary turnout has been down.
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UN peacekeeping at new highs after post-Cold War surge and decline
The number of UN peacekeeping forces around the world has peaked in recent months after falling off in the late 1990s, following a period of trial and error for UN interventions.
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Long Supreme Court vacancies used to be more common
If Senate Republicans stick with their declared intention to not consider anyone President Obama might nominate to replace Antonin Scalia, his seat on the Supreme Court likely would remain vacant for a year or more. That would be the longest vacancy on the court for nearly five decades, but by no means the longest ever in U.S. history. In fact, for much of the 19th century it was not uncommon for Supreme Court seats to be unoccupied for months – or, in a few cases, years – at a time.
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Data Quality Deserves an Honest Discussion
While the possibility of falsified data is an important consideration in survey research, a new tool to detect it fails to perform as advertised.
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Scalia’s Supreme Court vacancy draws much public interest, unlike past open seats
Such high levels of interest and engagement weren’t common in past Supreme Court nomination battles.
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Evaluating a New Proposal for Detecting Data Falsification in Surveys
Concern about data falsification is as old as the profession of public opinion polling. However, a new approach proposed by Kuriakose and Robbins (2015) to detecting falsification is concerning.
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Evaluating a New Proposal for Detecting Data Falsification in Surveys
The claim by Kuriakose and Robbins (2015) that there is widespread falsification in international surveys is clearly concerning. However, an extensive investigation conducted by Pew Research Center finds the claim is not well supported.
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Near-record number of primaries this year, but not quite as early
All but five states will hold at least one primary this year, cementing the primary’s dominance over the older caucus system in the presidential nominating process. But compared to 2008, the last time both parties had open nomination contests, the voting started later this year and is a bit more spread out.
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Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them
There hasn’t been a seriously contested nominating convention in decades, and a look at history helps explain why: Candidates who needed multiple ballots to get nominated usually didn’t go on to win the White House.
