Attachment Info
- Modeling the Future of Religion in America
- U.S. Christians projected to fall below 50% of population if recent trends continue
- U.S. ‘nones’ will approach majority by 2070 if recent switching trends continue
- In all four main scenarios, religiously unaffiliated Americans are projected to approach or exceed Christians in number by 2070
- The rise of religious ‘nones’ looks similar in data from Pew Research Center and the General Social Survey
- Christian identity used to be ‘stickier,’ now unaffiliated identity is stickier
- and more likely to become or remain unaffiliated
- About one-in-six teenage children of Christian mothers do not share the faith
- Most U.S. immigrants are Christian
- About half of Americans in their 20s are Christian, compared with over 80% of the oldest Americans
- Scenario 1: If switching continues at most recent rates, Christians would lose their majority by 2060 but in 2070 would still be the largest U.S. religious group
- Scenario 2: If switching continues to accelerate but brakes are applied, U.S. ‘nones’ would be the largest group in 2070 but not yet a majority
- Scenario 3: If switching continues to accelerate unabated, U.S. ‘nones’ would form a slim majority in 2070
- Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070
- Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition
- Estimates of 2020 population structure used as projection baseline
- Religious self-identity among 30- to 40-year-olds who were raised Christian or religiously unaffiliated
- American Trends Panel recruitment surveys
- Weighting dimensions
- Surveys show similar trajectories for the religiously unaffiliated
- Around the world, most people raised Christian still identify as Christian after they turn 30
- Unaffiliated retention rates vary considerably around the world
- Disaffiliating from Christianity after age 30 became more common in the mid-’90s
1615 L St. NW, Suite 800
Washington, DC 20036
USA
(+1) 202-419-4300 | Main
(+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax
(+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries
Research Topics
ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts.
Copyright 2024 Pew Research Center