Modeling the Future of Religion in America
Unaffiliated retention rates vary considerably around the world
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- Modeling the Future of Religion in America
- U.S. Christians projected to fall below 50% of population if recent trends continue
- U.S. ‘nones’ will approach majority by 2070 if recent switching trends continue
- In all four main scenarios, religiously unaffiliated Americans are projected to approach or exceed Christians in number by 2070
- The rise of religious ‘nones’ looks similar in data from Pew Research Center and the General Social Survey
- Christian identity used to be ‘stickier,’ now unaffiliated identity is stickier
- and more likely to become or remain unaffiliated
- About one-in-six teenage children of Christian mothers do not share the faith
- Most U.S. immigrants are Christian
- About half of Americans in their 20s are Christian, compared with over 80% of the oldest Americans
- Scenario 1: If switching continues at most recent rates, Christians would lose their majority by 2060 but in 2070 would still be the largest U.S. religious group
- Scenario 2: If switching continues to accelerate but brakes are applied, U.S. ‘nones’ would be the largest group in 2070 but not yet a majority
- Scenario 3: If switching continues to accelerate unabated, U.S. ‘nones’ would form a slim majority in 2070
- Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070
- Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition
- Estimates of 2020 population structure used as projection baseline
- Religious self-identity among 30- to 40-year-olds who were raised Christian or religiously unaffiliated
- American Trends Panel recruitment surveys
- Weighting dimensions
- Surveys show similar trajectories for the religiously unaffiliated
- Around the world, most people raised Christian still identify as Christian after they turn 30
- Disaffiliating from Christianity after age 30 became more common in the mid-’90s
- Light above the Church
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