Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition

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September 8, 2022

Modeling the Future of Religion in America

Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition

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Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition

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Modeling the Future of Religion in America
U.S. Christians projected to fall below 50% of population if recent trends continue
U.S. ‘nones’ will approach majority by 2070 if recent switching trends continue
In all four main scenarios, religiously unaffiliated Americans are projected to approach or exceed Christians in number by 2070
The rise of religious ‘nones’ looks similar in data from Pew Research Center and the General Social Survey
Christian identity used to be ‘stickier,’ now unaffiliated identity is stickier
and more likely to become or remain unaffiliated
About one-in-six teenage children of Christian mothers do not share the faith
Most U.S. immigrants are Christian
About half of Americans in their 20s are Christian, compared with over 80% of the oldest Americans
Scenario 1: If switching continues at most recent rates, Christians would lose their majority by 2060 but in 2070 would still be the largest U.S. religious group
Scenario 2: If switching continues to accelerate but brakes are applied, U.S. ‘nones’ would be the largest group in 2070 but not yet a majority
Scenario 3: If switching continues to accelerate unabated, U.S. ‘nones’ would form a slim majority in 2070
Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070
Estimates of 2020 population structure used as projection baseline
Religious self-identity among 30- to 40-year-olds who were raised Christian or religiously unaffiliated
American Trends Panel recruitment surveys
Weighting dimensions
Surveys show similar trajectories for the religiously unaffiliated
Around the world, most people raised Christian still identify as Christian after they turn 30
Unaffiliated retention rates vary considerably around the world
Disaffiliating from Christianity after age 30 became more common in the mid-’90s
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Modeling the Future of Religion in America

Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition

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