Growing shares of Christians and Muslims expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa

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April 3, 2017

The Changing Global Religious Landscape

Growing shares of Christians and Muslims expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa

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Growing shares of Christians and Muslims expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa

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The Changing Global Religious Landscape
Estimated shares of births and deaths
Muslims projected to be fastest-growing major religious group
Only Muslims and Christians are expected to have increasing number of births; all groups expected to have rising number of deaths due to population aging
Estimated shares of births and deaths
Projected change in global population, 2015-2060
Muslims and Christians have more children per woman than other religious groups
Christians are the largest religious group in 2015
The majority of the global unaffiliated population lives in Asia and the Pacific
Muslims and Hindus are the youngest religious populations
Babies born to Muslims will begin to outnumber Christian births by 2035
With wide gulf between births and deaths, Muslims saw more growth than any other religious group due to natural population increase between 2010-2015
Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where births expected to increasingly outnumber deaths among Christians
Muslims population growth is expected to slow down in Asia-Pacific and speed up in sub-Saharan Africa
By 2030, more deaths than births among the unaffiliated in the Asia-Pacific, where majority reside
Ranks of unaffiliated are expected to grow due to religious switching
Religiously affiliated women are younger and have more children than religiously unaffiliated women
Unaffiliated population shares and projected natural increase by region, 2010-2060
Muslim population shares and projected natural increase by region, 2010-2060
Christian population shares and projected natural increase by region, 2010-2060
Natural increase by religion, 2010-2015
Young adults and the religiously unaffiliated among most likely to think people with no religion will be the largest group in 2050
Most predict global growth of religious ‘nones’ in coming decades
About half of Americans know that Christians are largest global religious group
Size and projected growth of major religious groups, 2015-2060
Most religious population change between 2010 and 2015 came from natural increase (births minus deaths)
Among Christians, deaths exceeded births in 24 of 42 countries, 2010-2015
In many European countries, unaffiliated births exceeded deaths 2010-2015
Young adults and the religiously unaffiliated among most likely to think people with no religion will be the largest group in 2050

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