Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World

Amid Doubts About Biden’s Mental Sharpness, Trump Leads Presidential Race

1. The presidential choice: Biden, Trump, Kennedy

Chart shows Trump leads Biden in 2024 contest

Two weeks after the June 27 presidential debate, 44% of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for or lean toward Donald Trump. A smaller share (40%) say they support or lean toward Joe Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – a third-party candidate – peels off 15% of voters, while another 2% say they do not support or lean toward any of the three candidates listed on the survey.

When voters are asked to choose just between the two major party candidates, Trump has a 3 percentage point edge: 47% support or lean toward Biden, while 50% support or lean toward Trump. This is mostly on par with voter preferences in April. That survey did not include Kennedy.

Voting preferences among demographic subgroups

Many of the demographic patterns of support in this years’ election are similar to recent elections. With Kennedy striving to make inroads in the 2024 contest as an alternative to the two major party candidates, he tends to draw more support from younger voters.


Men are more likely than women to favor Trump in the 2024 contest: 48% of men support Trump, compared with 38% who support Biden. Among women voters, the race is tied: 40% favor Trump vs. 40% for Biden. Women are also more likely than men to say they support Kennedy. 

Race and ethnicity

White voters continue to strongly support Trump: Half say they support the former president, including a third who say they do so strongly. This compares with 36% who support Biden.

Black voters largely back Biden: 64% say they support the president in the 2024 election, while 21% favor Kennedy and 13% support Trump. 

Hispanic voters are evenly divided in their preferences: 36% support Biden while 36% support Trump. A quarter (24%) say they support Kennedy. Asian voters tilt more toward Biden (47% vs. 29%, respectively).

When the choices are narrowed to Biden and Trump, voter preferences among racial and ethnic groups are similar to where they stood in April on the two-way matchup. Today, in a two-way contest, 56% of White voters favor Trump, while Biden draws support from 78% of Black voters, 59% of Asian voters and 51% of Hispanic voters. 


Younger voters continue to back Biden by larger margins than older adults, though the gaps are smaller when Kennedy is on the ballot. Today, 48% of voters under 30 support Biden, 28% support Trump and 22% back Kennedy.

Voters over age 30, in comparison, are more likely to favor Trump. Among those 30 to 49, 42% support Trump, while 37% support Biden and 19% support Kennedy. Voters 50 and older also back Trump by even larger margins: 48% support Trump, 39% back Biden and 11% say they would vote for or lean toward Kennedy if the election were held today. 

In a two-way contest with only Trump and Biden, six-in-ten voters under 30 would back Biden, while 39% would choose Trump. About half of those 30 to 49 (51%) say they would choose Trump over Biden, while 46% would back Biden. And those 50 and older would back Trump over Biden 53% to 45% in the two-way matchup.

Chart shows White voters and those 50 and older support Trump by sizable margins; about half of voters under 30 favor Biden, with the remainder supporting Trump or RFK Jr.


Voters with a bachelor’s degree or more education continue to prefer Biden: 50% support or lean toward Biden, while 37% support Trump. This pattern is the reverse among those with no four-year degree: 48% support Trump while 34% support Biden.


Those who identify as belonging to a party are far more likely to say they are supporting their party’s candidate than those who lean toward a party. About nine-in-ten self-identified Republicans (92%) say that if the election were today they would support Trump, including 66% who say they would do so strongly. This compares with 69% of those who lean toward the Republican Party, with 33% supporting Trump strongly.

The gap is similar among Biden supporters. More than eight-in-ten Democratic identifiers (85%) support him, as do 68% of Democratic leaners.

Larger share of Trump’s voters say they strongly support him

Chart shows Trump holds a wide advantage over Biden in ‘strong’ support, a much narrower edge in ‘certain’ support

As was the case in the 2020 election, a larger share of Trump’s voters say they strongly support him for president compared with those who support other candidates.

These are the shares of voters who support their candidate strongly:

  • 43% of Biden supporters
  • 63% of Trump supporters
  • 15% of Kennedy supporters

A slightly larger share of Trump supporters (81%) than Biden supporters (77%) say they are certain to support him and will not change their minds.

Far fewer Kennedy supporters are committed in their support. Only about a quarter (26%) say they are certain to support Kennedy.

Moderate supporters of Biden and Trump are less likely than strong supporters to be certain of their choices

Chart shows Biden draws less strong support than Trump, but his moderate supporters are more certain of their choice than are Trump’s moderate supporters

Among each coalition’s strong supporters, overwhelming majorities say they are certain about their choices this November (97% of Biden’s strong supporters and 98% of Trump’s). Trump draws far more strong support than Biden (63% vs. 43%). However, Biden’s moderate supporters are more likely than Trump’s moderate voters to say they are certain of their choice.

While about three-quarters of Biden’s moderate supporters (76%) say they are certain to back him, a smaller majority (66%) of Trump’s moderate supporters say the same.

Where do Kennedy’s supporters go in a two-way race?

Chart shows Kennedy voters are less motivated to vote in 2024 election – and less likely to say it matters who wins

Compared with Biden and Trump backers, Kennedy’s supporters are less likely to say they are motivated to vote – and far less likely to say it really matters who wins the 2024 presidential election.

Identical majorities of Biden and Trump supporters (63%) say they are extremely motivated to vote in the presidential election this November. This compares with just 21% of Kennedy supporters.

Similarly, while nearly eight-in-ten Biden (79%) and Trump supporters (78%) say it really matters who wins the presidential election, just 39% of Kennedy voters view the stakes of the election in similar terms.

When asked whom they would support in an election with just two candidates, Kennedy supporters are divided: 47% say they would vote for Biden, while 44% say they would vote for Trump. Another 9% skipped the question.

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