Introduction and Summary
Pat Buchanan’s populist appeals have broadened and strengthened his base as a GOP primary candidate, but at the expense of potential support from key groups that typically vote Republican in presidential elections. A 52% majority of college graduates and 53% of those who earn $75,000 a year or more are displeased with his success on the campaign trail. But most who have never attended college or earn less than $30,000 a year are happy that he won the New Hampshire primary.
The Pew Research Center survey conducted this past weekend found the overall, public divided on Buchanan — 44% were pleased by his New Hampshire win, while 40% were displeased. Not only are working class Republicans reacting favorably to Buchanan’s success. A plurality of Independents who have not attended college are also pleased by his win, as are as many as 41% of Democrats who do not have a college degree.
Buchanan's Win ?PleasedDispleasedDKAll Respondents444016=100Republicans:College Grad.44515=100Not a Grad.573211=100Independents:College Grad.36559=100Not a Grad.433621=100Democrats:College Grad.39529=100Not a Grad.414217=100
However, Buchanan is turning off many groups that usually vote Republican in presidential contests, and this is more than offsetting his new found popularity among working class voters. He would lose to Bill Clinton by a wide 59% to 36% margin if the national election were held today. Clinton would also defeat Lamar Alexander and Bob Dole, but by narrower margins (54% to 42% and 52% to 44%, respectively). Differences in the patterns of support in these hypothetical races are quite telling. It is a very close contest between Clinton and Dole among people who have attended college, suburbanites and white independents. However, each of these usually Republican groups would support Clinton by a nearly 2 to 1 margin over Buchanan if faced with that choice today.
Patterns of SupportBill Clinton vs. Pat Buchanan/Bob Dole*ClintonBuchananClintonDoleTotal59365244SexMale55414849Female63325540EducationCollege Grad.62344748Some College62345048High School Grad.or less56385441Party IDRepublican23701384Democrat9010936Independent64324942Whites57384748Suburbanites72264948White Suburbanites69284651White Independents64324644* Based on registered voters
