Polls overstated GOP performance, understated Democrats in nearly every major race in 2026
Polling overstatement of Republican/Democratic performance, in percentage points
Note: Figures reflect the difference between final election margin and final polling average (Democratic minus Republican margin), in percentage points. Polling average is the mean of the final RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin and FiftyPlusOne averages for each race. Results as of Nov. 11, 2026; some races not final.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of polling averages and election returns.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Polls overstated GOP performance, understated Democrats in nearly every major race in 2026
Polling overstatement of Republican/Democratic performance, in percentage points
| Race | Office | Direction | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | U.S. House | Polls understated Dem margin | 4.7 |
| Texas | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 8.9 |
| Georgia | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 8.9 |
| North Carolina | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 8.5 |
| South Carolina | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 5.7 |
| New Hampshire | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 5.4 |
| Minnesota | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 4.3 |
| Iowa | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 3.6 |
| Florida | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 3.3 |
| Maine | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 2.1 |
| Ohio | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 2.0 |
| Michigan | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 1.8 |
| Kansas | U.S. Senate | Polls understated Dem margin | 0.9 |
| Texas | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 8.9 |
| Georgia | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 8.2 |
| New York | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 7.4 |
| Maine | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 6.9 |
| Nevada | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 6.7 |
| Arizona | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 4.3 |
| Ohio | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 3.5 |
| Iowa | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 3.4 |
| Florida | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 2.9 |
| Wisconsin | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 2.8 |
| Michigan | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 2.4 |
| New Hampshire | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 1.8 |
| Minnesota | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 0.6 |
| Kansas | Governor | Polls understated Dem margin | 0.6 |
| Pennsylvania | Governor | Polls overstated Dem margin | -2.2 |
Note: Figures reflect the difference between final election margin and final polling average (Democratic minus Republican margin), in percentage points. Polling average is the mean of the final RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin and FiftyPlusOne averages for each race. Results as of Nov. 11, 2026; some races not final.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of polling averages and election returns.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
