Public’s anti-incumbent mood hasn’t always predicted big electoral swings
Despite surveys showing anti-incumbent sentiments at or near all-time highs, most members of Congress appear to have little to worry about.
Anti-poll tax amendment is 50 years old today
The value in today’s dollars of the annual poll tax once imposed by several Southern states.
In New Year, Half Are Looking Forward to Midterm Elections
As 2014 begins and the midterm election campaigns heat up, about half of the public (51%) is especially looking forward to November’s congressional elections while 49% are not looking forward to them.
Will Obama drag down Hillary in 2016?
While Hillary Clinton had to contend with “Clinton fatigue” in her 2008 race for president, “Obama fatigue” is her potential stumbling block this time.
Republicans More Optimistic than Democrats about Midterms
Less than a year out from the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans are more optimistic than Democrats about their party’s electoral prospects. But the “expectations gap” is far more modest now than it was prior to the 2010 election, when Republicans were brimming with confidence, or 2006, when most Democrats anticipated a midterm victory.
Harvard poll finds Millennials have turned sour on Obama
A new survey by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics finds that 18-to-29 year olds now have a more negative view of his presidency. But the declines are not greater than those of other age groups.
Spending by nonparty groups sharply higher so far this election cycle
The amount that nonparty groups have spent so far in the 2013-14 election cycle.
Andrew Kohut: The GOP Is in Better Shape Than You Think
By Andrew Kohut Tucked away in recent polls—which have documented the extraordinary anger directed at the Republican Party during the shutdown crisis—are measures of clear disappointment with the Democratic Party. The disappointment is substantial, and it raises big questions about the 2014 midterms. The Republican Party’s favorable ratings fell substantially in most every national survey […]
Evangelicals’ support not enough to turn tide for Cuccinelli in Virginia governor race
Despite strong support for Republican Ken Cuccinelli from white evangelical voters, Democrat Terry McAuliffe defeated Cuccinelli on Tuesday in Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial election by a 48%-45% margin. In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie won re-election over Democrat Barbara Buono (60% to 38%) with strong support from both Protestants and Catholics. Virginia Eight-in-ten white evangelical voters […]
Only 1 in 7 House districts were competitive in 2012
In last year’s elections, winners won by at least 10 points in all but 62 of the 435 House districts.