U.S. PoliticsApril 14, 2016

Candidates who don’t win on first convention ballot usually go on to lose

In 11 of the 18 conventions since the Civil War that went more than one ballot, the first-ballot leader ended up losing the nomination to someone else.

U.S. PoliticsApril 5, 2016

Voters have a dim view of primaries as a good way to pick the best candidate

Just 35% of voters say that the primaries have been a good way of determining the best- qualified nominees.

U.S. PoliticsApril 1, 2016

Republicans skeptical their party would unite behind Trump

Roughly half of Ted Cruz’s and John Kasich’s supporters say that Trump would make a “poor” or “terrible” president.

U.S. PoliticsMarch 8, 2016

So far, turnout in this year’s primaries rivals 2008 record

So far this year, Republican primaries are experiencing record turnouts, much as voting in Democratic primaries surged in 2008. But the longer-term trend in primary turnout has been down.

U.S. PoliticsFebruary 17, 2016

Near-record number of primaries this year, but not quite as early

All but five states will hold at least one primary this year, cementing the primary’s dominance over the older caucus system in the presidential nominating process. But compared to 2008, the last time both parties had open nomination contests, the voting started later this year and is a bit more spread out.

U.S. PoliticsFebruary 4, 2016

Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them

There hasn’t been a seriously contested nominating convention in decades, and a look at history helps explain why: Candidates who needed multiple ballots to get nominated usually didn’t go on to win the White House.

U.S. PoliticsJanuary 28, 2016

Partisan divide grows over value of Washington experience

With the first 2016 nomination contests at hand, a new survey underscores the extent to which Republicans have come to place less value on a presidential candidate’s prior experience in office – especially experience as a Washington official.

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Appendix C: Sensitivity to the turnout forecast

The candidate preferences of voters and nonvoters in 2014 were very different. This fact makes cutoff methods very sensitive to the chosen turnout threshold. Using the Perry-Gallup method, the forecast margin ranges from a tie vote (47%-47%) with a more inclusive model (a turnout forecast of 60% of registered voters, 42% of the general public) […]

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Appendix B: The choice of a turnout measure

There are two indicators of voter turnout available for the type of analysis in this report: (1) each respondent’s self-report in the post-election survey and (2) a voter file record of turnout. Among registered voters, 63% have a voter file record indicating that they voted in 2014 (“verified voters”) and 75% said they voted (“self-reported […]

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Appendix A: The Perry-Gallup measures

The items used in the so-called Perry-Gallup scale – originally developed in the 1950s and ’60s by election polling pioneer Paul Perry of Gallup and used in various combinations and with some alterations by the Pew Research Center, Gallup and other organizations in their pre-election polling (Perry 1960, 1979) – are widely employed by survey […]