U.S. PoliticsApr 14, 2016

Candidates who don’t win on first convention ballot usually go on to lose

In 11 of the 18 conventions since the Civil War that went more than one ballot, the first-ballot leader ended up losing the nomination to someone else.

U.S. PoliticsApr 5, 2016

Voters have a dim view of primaries as a good way to pick the best candidate

Just 35% of voters say that the primaries have been a good way of determining the best- qualified nominees.

U.S. PoliticsApr 1, 2016

Republicans skeptical their party would unite behind Trump

Roughly half of Ted Cruz’s and John Kasich’s supporters say that Trump would make a “poor” or “terrible” president.

U.S. PoliticsMar 8, 2016

So far, turnout in this year’s primaries rivals 2008 record

So far this year, Republican primaries are experiencing record turnouts, much as voting in Democratic primaries surged in 2008. But the longer-term trend in primary turnout has been down.

U.S. PoliticsFeb 17, 2016

Near-record number of primaries this year, but not quite as early

All but five states will hold at least one primary this year, cementing the primary’s dominance over the older caucus system in the presidential nominating process. But compared to 2008, the last time both parties had open nomination contests, the voting started later this year and is a bit more spread out.

U.S. PoliticsFeb 4, 2016

Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them

There hasn’t been a seriously contested nominating convention in decades, and a look at history helps explain why: Candidates who needed multiple ballots to get nominated usually didn’t go on to win the White House.

U.S. PoliticsJan 28, 2016

Partisan divide grows over value of Washington experience

With the first 2016 nomination contests at hand, a new survey underscores the extent to which Republicans have come to place less value on a presidential candidate’s prior experience in office – especially experience as a Washington official.

Pew Research CenterJan 7, 2016

Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?

High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.

U.S. PoliticsDec 14, 2015

Debates Help Fuel Strong Interest in 2016 Campaign

As candidates in both parties prepare for the next round of presidential debates, a new national survey finds that the public is highly engaged by the 2016 campaign.

U.S. PoliticsDec 7, 2015

As more money flows into campaigns, Americans worry about its influence

There’s more money in the political system than at any time since the reforms of the 1970s, a trend that concerns most Americans regardless of party or ideology.