Jun 26, 2014 2:00 pm

New political typology data show islands of agreement amid sea of polarization

Given how polarized American politics and society are these days, it’s easy to think of Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, as entrenched and embittered enemies locked in endless battle. But sometimes politics does indeed make strange bedfellows, and data from the Pew Research Center’s latest political typology report show some surprising areas of agreement between otherwise opposing groups.

Who are the political typology groups?

Steadfast Conservatives: Generally critical of government, especially social safety net programs, but also critical of big business and immigrants. Most are very socially conservative.

Business Conservatives: Overall, critical of government regulation and social-welfare spending, but not of big business. For the most part, moderate to liberal on social issues, with positive views toward immigrants.

Young Outsiders: Tend to be distrustful of government programs and fiscally conservative, but very liberal on social issues and not very religious.

Hard-Pressed Skeptics: Generally distrustful of government, except for social safety net spending. On average, low-income, anti-immigrant compared with other groups.

Next Generation Left: Generally positive feelings about government, but less so for social programs. Tend to be business-oriented and individualistic.

Faith and Family Left: By and large, highly religious, socially conservative, but strongly support social safety net and government action more broadly.

Solid Liberals: Overall, highly supportive of social programs, immigrants and government generally; very skeptical of business and markets. Consistently liberal on social issues, from homosexuality to environmental protection.

Take, for example, the question of whether the U.S. government should collect telecommunications data as part of its anti-terrorism efforts. Opposition to such practices is highest at both ends of the political spectrum: 69% of Steadfast Conservatives, 61% of Business Conservatives and 58% of Solid Liberals say they disapprove of government data collection.

strange_bedfellows (1)When it comes to immigration, Steadfast Conservatives and Hard-Pressed Skeptics — two groups which otherwise have little in common — share similarly negative views: 79% of the Hard-Pressed group and 73% of the Steadfast group call immigrants a burden on American society, while 81% of Steadfasts and 72% of the Hard-Pressed say newcomers threaten “traditional American customs and values.” Those two groups also express the most support for a national effort to deport all illegal immigrants: 42% of Steadfasts and 31% of the Hard-Pressed favor such a policy.  Read More

Topics: Political Typology

Jun 26, 2014 11:58 am

Q/A: How Pew Research created the political typology

Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research, Pew Research Center

The Pew Research Center has been doing its Political Typology reports every few years since the first one in 1987. The typology study published today is a follow-up to our report on political polarization in America and draws on the sample of 10,013 adults nationwide surveyed earlier this year. We asked Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research, to explain why — and how — we do this particular analysis.

Why did you create the political typology?

The goal of the political typology is to sort people into homogeneous groups, based on their political values and attitudes. It’s an effort to categorize people politically to help us better understand the complexities of the current political landscape. This kind of “clustering” gives us a way to quickly summarize a large amount of complex information, to understand differences among people, and to help predict how people are going to act in the future.

The urge to categorize is so strong that it is almost a part of being human. People have long tried to classify the things they deal with in life, whether we’re talking about animals, vegetables, minerals, diseases, songs, celestial objects – but we especially like to classify humans.  Read More

Topics: Political Attitudes and Values, Political Polarization, Political Typology, Research Methodology

Jun 26, 2014 11:22 am

Falloff in births slows shift to a majority-minority youth population

The sharp decline in U.S. births after the onset of the Great Recession—especially among Hispanics—has slowed the nation’s transition to a majority-minority youth population, according to new Census Bureau data released today. Among newborns, nearly equal share of minorities and non-Hispanic whites, Census data showsThe bureau’s population estimates for July 1, 2013, show that young Americans are far more likely than older ones to be racial or ethnic minorities, defined as anyone who is not a single-race non-Hispanic white. Among Americans younger than five, half were minorities in 2013. Among those ages 80 and older, more than 80% were non-Hispanic white. But minorities are not yet the majority of any age group, even babies, in the bureau’s new estimates. Among the nation’s 3.9 million children younger than age 1 in 2013, there were about 3,000 more non-Hispanic whites than minorities—essentially equal shares. In addition, the bureau published revised estimates today for 2011 and 2012 that also showed slightly more non-Hispanic whites than minorities in that youngest age group. Read More

Topics: Birth Rate and Fertility, Demographics, Hispanic/Latino Demographics, U.S. Census

Jun 26, 2014 7:00 am

U.S. Hispanic and Asian populations growing, but for different reasons

The distinction of being the fastest-growing racial/ethnic group in the United States has alternated between Asians and Hispanics in recent decades. Since 2010, though, Asians have had the edge. New Census Bureau data estimate that the U.S. Hispanic population topped 54 million as of July 1, 2013, an increase of 2.1% over 2012. Meanwhile, the Asian population grew to 19.4 million, with a growth rate of 2.9%.

Hispanic population growth fueled mainly by Y.S. births; Asians by MigrationU.S. births have been the primary driving force behind the increase in the Hispanic population since 2000 and that trend continued between 2012 and 2013. The Census Bureau estimates that natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted for 78% of the total change in the U.S. Hispanic population from 2012 to 2013.

By comparison, growth in the Asian American population has been fueled primarily by immigration. Fully 74% of Asian adults in 2012 were foreign born according to Pew Research Center analysis of Census data, and international migration accounted for about 61% of the total change in the Asian American population from 2012 to 2013. (Asian American figures represent the population who reported their race alone or in combination with one or more races, and includes Hispanics. Hispanics are of any race.)

Read More

Topics: Asian Americans, Demographics, Hispanic/Latino Demographics, Immigration Trends, Race and Ethnicity

Jun 24, 2014 2:11 pm

After decades of GOP support, Cubans shifting toward the Democratic Party

Cubans in the U.S. have long identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party, even as Hispanics overall have tilted Democrat. But the party affiliation of Cubans has undergone a shift over the past decade, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of survey data.

Political Affiliation Among U.S. CubansLess than half (47%) of Cuban registered voters nationwide now say they identify with or lean toward the Republican Party—down from the 64% who said the same about the GOP a decade ago, according to 2013 survey data. Meanwhile, the share of Cubans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has doubled from 22% to 44% over the same time period, according to the survey of Hispanics.

The Cuban population in the U.S. is centered in Florida, home to seven-in-ten of the nation’s 2 million Cuban-origin Hispanics. In the 1960s, the state’s Cuban immigrant population boomed as many left the island after Fidel Castro’s rise to power. The concentration of Cuban voters subsequently helped push the overall Hispanic vote toward the Republican Party in the Sunshine State. In 2004, for example, Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush won 78% of the Cuban vote in Florida, compared with 56% of the state’s Hispanics overall.  Read More

Topics: Hispanic/Latino Vote, Political Party Affiliation, Race and Ethnicity, U.S. Political Parties

Jun 23, 2014 7:00 am

Five years in, recovery still underwhelms compared with previous ones

Most Americans say the economy is improving, but not too stronglyAs of this month, the U.S. economy’s recovery from the Great Recession is five years old. But given how most Americans rate it, they can be forgiven for not feeling much in the mood for cake and ice cream.

In a Pew Research Center survey from April, only 6% of Americans said the economy was recovering strongly. Two-thirds (66%) said the economy was recovering, but not very strongly; about a quarter (26%) said it wasn’t recovering at all. The same survey found that Americans’ financial self-assessment had barely budged since June 2009, when the recession officially ended: 37% rated their financial situation “excellent” or “good,” 39% “only fair,” and 23% “poor.”

Americans' Financial Self-AssessmentThat persistent economic pessimism is warranted. By several measures — gross domestic product, personal income, job growth and employment ratio — the current recovery is among the weakest on record, particularly given its duration. Unless the economy’s official scorekeepers change their minds, the recovery already has lasted 60 months — the fifth-longest expansion since the end of World War II. (Economists divide economic cycles into two phases: expansion (or recovery) and recession. The current recovery is considered to have begun in June 2009, the trough of the recession that started when the economy peaked in December 2007.)  Read More

Topics: Economic and Business News, Economic Recession, Economics and Personal Finances, National Economy

Jun 20, 2014 1:20 pm

As FIFA attempts to curb racism at the World Cup, a look at hate speech laws worldwide

Hate speech laws worldwide

Reports of racist and xenophobic slurs against players and fans have continued to emerge during the World Cup. Two fans were arrested last weekend after chanting racist remarks during the match featuring Argentina vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina.

In an attempt to combat hate speech during the tournament, FIFA and Brazilian authorities initiated an anti-racism campaign using the hashtag #SayNoToRacism. Hate speech is taken seriously in Brazil, where racist or religiously intolerant speech or actions are prohibited by law and carry penalties including imprisonment.

Brazil is not the only country with a law that penalizes hate speech. A new Pew Research analysis finds hate speech laws in 89 countries around the world (45%), according to 2012 data. In some countries, the laws protect only certain religious or social groups, while others have broader laws, covering words or actions that insult, denigrate or intimidate a person or group based on race, gender, religion, ethnicity or other traits.  Read More

Topics: Gender, Race and Ethnicity, Restrictions on Religion

Jun 20, 2014 7:00 am

Chart of the Week: Another way to see employment



While unemployment continues to fall throughout the United States, and the economy has recovered all the jobs lost in the Great Recession, almost no one would argue that the U.S. jobs situation is where it should be. One big reason: The share of adults who actually have jobs (58.9%) is still well below its pre-recession level (62.7%).

While that’s overall trend is true in every state, there’s considerable variation in both how much employment ratios fell during the recession and how much they’ve since rebounded, as this nifty chart from The New York Times’ “The Upshot” blog shows. We liked the way it helps people readily visualize an abstract, and not overly familiar, concept over time, without using the standard trend line.

The full version orders the states from lowest employment ratio (West Virginia, 50.7%) to highest (North Dakota, 69.3%). You can also easily see which states stand out for having made the most progress in rebuilding employment (such as Utah and Maine) or where employment ratios remain near their bottoms (such as Mississippi and New Jersey).

Why, unlike in previous recoveries, has the employment ratio been stuck so long? Economists and other analysts offer a variety of answers, from more formerly employed people giving up on looking for work to a surge in Baby Boomer retirements. But as a Wells Fargo report (referenced by Vox) notes, other advanced economies are facing similar (though less dramatic) declines in employment.

Category: Chart of the Week

Topics: National Economy, Work and Employment

Jun 19, 2014 11:35 am

‘March for Marriage’ rally reflects steadfast opposition to gay marriage among evangelical Christians

At a time when polls show a growing number of Americans favor same-sex marriage, a coalition of groups opposing gay marriage are holding a “March for Marriage” today in Washington, D.C., to demonstrate what organizers call a “deep and wide support for the definition of marriage as the union of one man and one woman,” according to National Organization for Marriage president Brian Brown.

FT_same-sex-marriage-religious-viewsThe tide of public opinion on same-sex marriage has changed rapidly. In just five years, the percentage of adults who say they oppose same-sex marriage has fallen from a majority (54%) to a minority. Today, roughly four-in-ten Americans (39%) say they oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to wed, according to Pew Research Center polling.

But while opposition to same-sex marriage is still sizable, it is now more concentrated among a few religious groups – particularly white evangelical Protestants. (Many of the groups sponsoring today’s rally are affiliated with evangelical Christianity.)

White evangelical Protestants, many of whom belong to churches that still firmly prohibit gay marriage, tend to be much more likely to oppose same-sex marriage than the general population or other large faith groups. Indeed, seven-in-ten white evangelical Protestants say they oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to wed. In addition, about half of African-American Protestants (49%), some of whom belong to historically black churches that are evangelical, also oppose gay marriage. Read More

Topics: Evangelical Protestants and Evangelicalism, Gay Marriage and Homosexuality

Jun 19, 2014 7:01 am

7 facts about White House press secretaries

White House press secretaries
Can you name these White House press secretaries and the presidents they served? See answers at the bottom.

In replacing Jay Carney in front of the media today, Josh Earnest becomes the 30th presidential press secretary since the post was created 85 years ago, according to Towson University professor Martha Joynt Kumar, a leading expert and author on  White House communications.

As the guard changes at the press room podium, Kumar helped Pew Research put together this collection of historical facts and figures about those whose job it is to position themselves—sometimes as a conduit, sometimes as a shield—between the commander in chief and the Fourth Estate.

1The first man to officially hold the post of press secretary was George Akerson, who served President Herbert Hoover from March 1929 until February 1931. While other presidential secretaries helped to brief reporters, Akerson was the first whose only responsibilities involved dealing with the media. Read More

Topics: Barack Obama, News Sources