Probability forecasts have gained prominence in recent years. But these forecasts may confuse potential voters and may even lower the likelihood that they vote.
People in 38 countries were asked how often they use the internet – as well as how often they use social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter and other sites – to get news. Specifically, they were asked whether they did each activity several times a day, once a day, several times a week, once a […]
Courtney Kennedy of Pew Research Center, who chaired survey researchers organization AAPOR's task force on political polling in the 2016 U.S. elections, discuss the group's findings and recommendations.
There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump's level of support.
The firm that runs the presidential exit poll expects to interview about 100,000 voters across the country by the time the polls close on election night.
One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.