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Survey Methods

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Video: Can polls tell us who will win on Election Day?

We often hear a candidate is leading, trailing, or the race is tied. This is based on “horse race” polling, which estimates how much support candidates have, based on how people answer surveys leading up to an election. But accurately measuring the horse race is wicked hard for a few reasons.

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Public Opinion Polling Basics

How do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? A Pew Research Center survey methodologist answers these questions and more in six short, easy to read lessons.

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Survey Methods

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    How do you decide how to word your survey questions?

    Senior research staff answer questions from readers relating to all the areas covered by our seven projects, ranging from polling techniques and findings, to media, technology, religious, demographic and global attitudes trends.

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    Are adults with only a cell phone represented in your polls?

    Senior research staff answer questions from readers relating to all the areas covered by our seven projects, ranging from polling techniques and findings, to media, technology, religious, demographic and global attitudes trends.

  • report

    But What Do the Polls Show?

    Perhaps the best way to think about public opinion and its relationship to politics and policymaking is that the American public is typically short on facts, but often long on judgment.

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    Perils of Polling in Election ’08

    Despite such challenges as a growing wireless-only population, possible racially-related response bias and greater-than-usual difficulties in forecasting turnout, polllsters’ methods were evidently adequate to the task.

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    Why Surveys of Muslim Americans Differ

    Because Muslim Americans make up a very small percentage of the U.S. public, it is difficult to provide a reliable picture of their views and differences in survey design can crucially affect findings.

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    Bush and Public Opinion

    Overview: Bush and Public Opinion As George W. Bush prepares to leave the White House, the United States is in many ways dramatically different from when he took the oath of office in 2001. His first few months as president were largely unremarkable, despite the contentious 2000 election. But the horrific terror attacks of Sept. […]

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    Calling Cell Phones In ’08 Pre-Election Polls

    The latest study of Pew Research Center election surveys analyzes the effects of conducting both landline and cell phone interviews. While the addition of cell phones had at most a modest effect on estimates of candidate support in individual surveys, when looked at in the aggregate clear patterns emerge.

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    What a Year! People-Press Poll Reports in 2008

    Findings from Pew Research Center polls over the year told the story of the longest — and one of the most exciting — presidential elections in U.S. history as well as recording the public’s reactions to other major events ranging from the pope’s visit, to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, to the onset of a mega-economic downturn.

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    Exit Poll Preview

    In an exclusive interview, Joe Lenski, co-founder and Executive Vice President of Edison Media Research discusses his organization’s plans for conducting exit polls on November 4, given this year’s special challenges.

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