Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World

The Inevitable Candidate: Obama?

As voters go to the polls in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont, Barack Obama has taken a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton among Democratic voters nationwide (49%-40%); however, more overwhelming is the impression that Obama is going to win, with seven-in-ten Democrats saying Obama is more likely to win the party’s nomination while just 17% see Clinton as the eventual nominee. Even a majority (52%) of Clinton’s backers say they think Obama is likely to win. Barely a third (34%) of Clinton backers predict that she will win the nomination. Since early February, Obama has made substantial gains among conservative Democratic voters, African Americans, and those with a high school education or less. He has now pulled even with Clinton among non-college voters, gaining 20 points among this group since early February. The Illinois senator’s polling lead is a reversal of the eight-point lead Clinton held just three weeks ago. Read More