Biden supporters in states where it is hardest to vote by mail are most concerned about voting this fall
About six-in-ten registered voters in the five U.S. states where elections are conducted entirely by mail expect voting to be easy.
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6. The net effects in 10 years will be negligible
Many of the experts in this canvassing responded that there may not be a great deal of meaningful change in social and civic innovation in the next decade. Some said they expect 2030 to be relatively similar to today. Some said there will be change for the better and the worse, and, as such, the […]
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2. The changing composition of the electorate and partisan coalitions
For the most recent data on partisan identification in the U.S., read this April 2024 report: Changing Partisan Coalitions in a Politically Divided Nation Note that the 2024 report is based on data from online surveys, with historical telephone data adjusted to make trends directly comparable to online surveys. As a result, the historical point estimates […]
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Appendix B: Classifying European political parties
Classifying parties as populist Although experts generally agree that populist political leaders or parties display high levels of anti-elitism, definitions of populism vary. We use three measures to classify populist parties: anti-elite ratings from the 2017 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES), Inglehart and Norris’s populism party scale and The PopuList. We define a party as […]
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1. The innovations these experts predict by 2030
Americans and many around the world are not terribly satisfied with the state of democracy and the institutions that undergird it. Experts who were canvassed about the relationship between people’s technology use and democracy also expressed serious concerns about how things will unfold in the next decade. At the same time, the experts responding to […]