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    Acknowledgements

    This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals. Find related reports online at pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/internet. Primary researchers Aaron Smith, Associate Director, Research Monica Anderson, Research Associate Research team Lee Rainie, Director, Internet and Technology Research Andrew Perrin, Research Analyst Kenny Olmstead, Research Associate Nick Bertoni, Panel Manager Cary […]

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    Theme 2: The information environment will not improve because technology will create new challenges that can’t or won’t be countered effectively and at scale

    Many respondents who expect no improvement in the information environment argue that certain actors in government,business and other individuals with propaganda agendas and special interests are turning technology to their favor in the spread of misinformation. There are too many of them and they are clever enough that they will continue to infect the online […]

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    About this canvassing of experts

    The expert predictions reported here about the impact of the internet over the next 10 years came in response to one of eight questions asked by Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center in an online canvassing conducted between July 1 and Aug. 12, 2016. This is the seventh “Future of the […]

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    5. Voter files in action

    Commercial voter files have been used in a wide variety of ways, either by themselves or in conjunction with other data. Although such files have been employed by political campaigns for many years, their use by journalists and others interested in elections has increased recently as familiarity with the files has grown and the ancillary […]

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    Theme 3: The information environment will improve because technology will help label, filter or ban misinformation and thus upgrade the public’s ability to judge the quality and veracity of content

    Many respondents who said they hope for or expect an improvement in the information environment 10 years from now mentioned ways in which new technological and verification solutions might be implemented. A number of these proposed solutions include the hope that technology will be created to evaluate content – making it “accessible.” Technology moves fast […]

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    The Fate of Online Trust in the Next Decade

    Many experts say lack of trust won’t hinder increased public reliance on the internet. Some expect trust to grow as tech and regulatory changes arise; others think it will worsen or maybe change entirely.

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    Theme 5: The less-than-satisfying current situation will not change much in the next decade

    A noteworthy number of those responding to this canvassing are not convinced that much progress will be made in people’s existing attitudes about trust online. Ed Lyell, professor of business and economics at Adams State University, wrote, “Security is the key to which direction we go in trusting transactions to electronic form. Passwords are mostly […]

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    Theme 1: Trust will strengthen because systems will improve and people will adapt to them and more broadly embrace them

    A plurality of respondents expect participation in online interactions to grow in the next decade. They cited a variety of reasons, including 1) continued improvement of global security and personal privacy in technical systems, as well as civic and industry support for social strategies, that will in turn build trust; and 2) people’s increased capacity […]

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    Theme 1: The information environment will not improve. The problem is human nature

    Misinformation and “fake news” have been around for as long as people have communicated. But today’s instant, low-budget, far-reaching communications capabilities have the potential to make the problem orders of magnitude more dangerous than in the past. Mankind has always lied, and always will; which is why the winners of wars get to write the […]

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