Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
Read our research on:
Search results for: “election”
-
Appendix B: Retiring overrepresented panelists
Center researchers developed a plan to retire a subset of panelists who are overrepresented both demographically and politically. In raw, unadjusted numbers, the ATP contains proportionately too many college graduates, registered voters and Democratic-leaning adults. This is neither intentional nor unique to the ATP; instead it stems from such adults being more amenable to taking […]
-
2. Views of the Democratic and Republican parties
Just under half of Americans (47%) have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while a slightly larger share (51%) have an unfavorable view. The GOP is viewed more negatively – 38% say they have a positive view of the Republican Party, while 60% rate it unfavorably. These views are modestly changed since last summer, […]
-
2. Statehouse reporters by outlet type: Nonprofit news grows as newspaper presence declines
The 1,724 reporters covering the nation’s statehouses work for a range of outlet types. In 2022, nearly half work for either a newspaper (26%) or a nonprofit news organization (20%). Television stations are the next biggest employer, with 16% of statehouse reporters. The rest of the statehouse pool works for radio stations (10%), wire services […]
-
2. Republicans who relied on Trump for news in 2020 diverged from others in GOP in views of COVID-19, election
While large partisan gaps emerged in views of two dominant stories of last year – the COVID-19 pandemic and the presidential election – there also was one clear and consistent difference within a single party. As a whole, Republicans who turned to Donald Trump as a key source of news about these events had different […]
